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In
20 years, our study of cycles has convinced
us that they are your key to precious metal
and rare coin profits. We believe precious
metals and rare coins operate much the same
way other investment markets function which
are driven by economic cycles. The typical
recession ends in business expansion, which
causes growth in the economy which then
overheats. This eventually leads to recovery
and recession which starts the cycle again.
"If
the American people ever allow private banks
to control the issue of their currency,
first by inflation and then by deflation,
the banks and corporations that will grow
up around them will deprive the people of
all property until their children wake up
homeless on the cotton that their fathers
conquered."
Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826)
In
the middle of such economic cycles the government
steps in with economic measures designed
"to help us out" instead of letting
the free market work out its own problems.
They may raise interest rates or even use
price controls to influence each successive
cycle and believe they have acted in the
best interest of the American public. In
fact they have simply built into the system
another powerful force which will come crushing
back on our economic house.
This
long-time government philosophy of "helping
out" was born and raised in America
during the 1930s depression. And the end
result is now a financial paradox which
creates dangerous problems, especially for
the middle and lower wage earner of America.
Our government now believes all problems
can be solved by additional spending.
They
thus tax accordingly and continue spending.
This leads to inflation which destroys the
value of our currency. You don't have to
be an economics major to know there is no
free lunch. Each successive year our government
fails to deal with the core problem of too
much spending. The paper money which is
created out of thin air has no gold backing
to keep everyone honest. With a little homework
it is easy to see that as each cycle passes
the dollar becomes weaker. This chipping
away of buying power is insidious for it
happens over decades. If you understand
this collapse in purchasing power it is
easy to see the necessity of hard asset
protection.
But
even this is only the beginning for there
is an economic dynamic happening that few
are familiar with unless you come from a
country whose currency has been destroyed.
As these cycles repeat themselves there
is the chance that something will go wrong
and send us into a hyper-inflationary cycle
in which the dollar's value could collapse.

The
First Big Run 1970-1975
Rare
coins and precious metals became investment
vehicles in the early 1970s when the world
began to question the stability and value
of the U.S. dollar. Prior to 1975 gold activity
increased and so did the price of quality
rare coins. These price increases were caused
by inflation fears and the anticipated rise
in the price of gold, whose ownership was
again made legal in 1975.
The Second
Big Run 1976-1980
In 1975 most Americans lost
interest in hard assets, a recession was
in place, and gold was heading for $130.
Everyone said there was no place for gold
in modern finance. Only 5 years later gold
topped $800 dollars an ounce! This was testimony
that something had gone terrible wrong with
our paper money system. Energy prices were
soaring, inflation was in double digits
and people had a right to be scared. Many
investors decided to hedge themselves with
hard assets and prices on quality coins
exploded!
A Stable
To Upward Market 1982-1986
By 1982 prices were once
again inexpensive relative to old highs.
These years saw an up and down gold market
which traded between $300 and $450, but
saw a quality rare coin market that generally
increased in value by as much as 300% giving
very little in gains back over time.
The Third
Big Run 1988-1989
In these years gold was
stable in the $400 range but powerful forces
were at work with higher grade rare coins.
In fact this market increased in value by
perhaps 100% over the 1986 gains but, before
this cycle was complete, managed to give
back most of that impressive move.
The Fourth
Big Run 1989-1990
During this cycle gold once
again was steady but quality rare coins
were explosive, moving up by 80% as Wall
Street began actively buying certified coins.
When they exited the market the public began
buying common stocks, which caused the DOW
to move dramatically higher and, in turn,
pushed the certified market lower, thus
creating another buying opportunity.
"All
the perplexities, confusion, and distress
in America arise not from defects of the
constitution, nor from want of honor or
virtue, so much as downright ignorance of
the nature of coin, credit, and circulation."
John Quincy Adams (1767-1848)
All of these spectacular moves are documented
using independent sources like the Coin
Dealer Newsletter - CDN Graphs. And we will
provide copies to you at no charge. The
market for quality rare coins has once again
settled down and we have seen prices on
quality material move to 1982 levels!
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