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BLBG: Oil Rises for First Time in Five Days on Rate Cut Speculation
By Grant Smith

Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for the first time in five days as an interest-rate cut in Australia triggered speculation that other central banks will ease policy to shore up economic growth.

Oil also rose on speculation OPEC may trim output. The group, due to review production targets in December, will take ``appropriate measures'' to stabilize international markets, President Chakib Khelil said yesterday. It pared some of those gains as the U.K. government weighed a recovery plan for banks.

``We'll see more commitment from central banks that will help the market in the short term,'' said Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich in Vienna. ``If prices fall to $80, the possibility of OPEC cutting before its December meeting increases.''

Crude oil for November delivery jumped as much as $3.27, or 3.7 percent, to $91.05 a barrel in electronic trading, and was at $89.50 at 9:37 a.m. London time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude oil futures have declined 38 percent from the record $147.27 reached July 11.

Yesterday, crude futures fell $6.07 to settle at $87.81 a barrel in New York. The contract touched $87.56, the lowest since Feb. 7, as the dollar rose against the euro, while OPEC chief Khelil said the price slide will continue next year.

Arjun Murti, the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst who predicted a crude ``super spike'' in March 2005, said there is a ``downside'' risk to his forecast that oil may rise to Goldman's forecast of $120 oil in the fourth-quarter.

`Mounting Concern'

``Oil prices increasingly appear unlikely to sustain a rally until global GDP expectations bottom,'' Goldman said in the note. ``While we believe oil supply/demand fundamentals are not as bearish as is sentiment, we recognize that concern continues to mount towards global oil demand growth.''

The U.K. government may invest at least 45 billion pounds ($79 billion) in banks including Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Barclays Plc to bolster capital depleted by mortgage- related losses, two people with knowledge of the situation said.

Petroleos Mexicanos, the third-largest supplier of crude to the U.S., closed six wells in the Gulf of Mexico and removed 33 workers from offshore platforms as Tropical Storm Marco passed nearby. Output from the producer's Lankahuasa platform was shut at 3 p.m. yesterday, Mexico City-based Pemex, as the company is known, said on its Web site. The El Raudal natural gas processing center was also shut, it said.

OPEC Output

Brent crude oil for November settlement gained as much as $2.75, or 3.2 percent, to $86.37 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $84.69 at 9:38 a.m. London time. Yesterday, the contract fell $6.57, or 7.3 percent, to $83.68 a barrel on yesterday, the lowest closing price since Oct. 23, 2007.

Oil production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps 40 percent of the world's crude, fell 1.3 percent in September as output in Iraq dropped to a 13-month low, a Bloomberg News survey released Oct. 3 showed.

OPEC members pumped an average 32.19 million barrels a day last month, down 425,000 barrels a day from August, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. August output was revised up by 40,000 barrels a day because of higher Nigerian output.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nesa Subrahmaniyan in Singapore at nesas@bloomberg.net. Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net