BLBG: Copper, Gold Signal Policy Makers Losing, BCA's Abramson Says
By Claudia Carpenter
Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices relative to the value of gold are signaling that policy makers are losing the battle to avert a global slowdown, according to BCA Research in Montreal.
The ratio of copper to gold prices last week dropped to the lowest since January 2004, according to Bloomberg calculations. Copper had its worst week in two decades and gold advanced. Copper is considered a bellwether for the global economy while some investors buy gold as a haven in times of financial turmoil.
The copper and gold ratio is ``going in the wrong direction'' to signal a recovery, BCA commodities strategist David Abramson said today at a London Metal Exchange seminar. ``Clearly deflation is the big risk.''
Commodities, as measured by the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials, have dropped 39 percent from a record in July. G-7 finance chiefs pledged Oct. 10 to take ``urgent and exceptional action'' after stocks plunged and as a global recession looms.
Industrial metals prices may bottom in the second quarter of next year, he said. ``It wouldn't hurt if copper started to outperform gold for a change. But I wouldn't hold my breath.''
Copper has dropped 25 percent this year while gold is up 3.6 percent.
To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net or ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net