Fundamental Analysis
Farmers arrivals followed the same trend of past and didn’t impact the stock availability in physical market.
International trade was thin, with only a few deals reported during the week as overseas buyers are still waiting for prices to drop further along with stability in dollar.
Huge stocks at exchange warehouses are also pressurizing the Mentha prices as most of the traders prefer exchange platform to deliver their oil. Hence, this may continue further until the difference between spot and futures get widened in the coming weeks.
Despite of lower stocks this year, export demand hasn’t picked up the pace as it was expected earlier. However, the coming months might witness some good demand from European and Chinese market.
Technical Analysis
Mentha future (NCDEX Nov Contract) closed at Rs.538.70 on Monday, above from the previous day’s close of 535.50.
Prices closed below its 5 days SMA & 20 days SMA indicating a sideways down trend. RSI at 29.88 is currently moving sideways down.
NCDEX Nov contract is likely to trade at lower level for the intraday.
Outlook
We expects the futures to continue trading range bound with weak bias in coming week as demand from international and spot market will more or less constant . However, higher seasonal demand from local and overseas buyers in winter might help the Mentha prices to recover and trade with firm sentiment in the medium as well as long term.
