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BLBG: Canada’s Dollar Depreciates for 5th Week as Crude Oil Tumbles
 
July 4 (Bloomberg) -- Canada’s dollar posted a fifth weekly drop after the U.S. reported a larger-than-forecast number of job losses, stoking concern the economic recovery is faltering and sending crude oil below $67 a barrel.

The Canadian currency, dubbed the loonie, fell 0.8 percent over five days, capping the longest string of losses since it dropped six straight weeks through Dec. 14, 2007. Oil, the nation’s biggest export, fell yesterday to $65.61.

“The loonie is flying lower,” said Yanick Desnoyers, assistant chief economist in Montreal at National Bank Financial, a unit of Canada’s sixth-biggest bank. “It should weaken a bit further in the short run because commodity prices are falling.”

He predicts the Canadian dollar will decline to about C$1.19 by year end before starting on a “rising trend” early next year amid a global economy recovery.

The Canadian currency traded at C$1.1607 per U.S. dollar yesterday in Toronto from C$1.1524 at the end of last week. One Canadian dollar buys 86.16 U.S. cents.

The U.S. dollar rose in the week against 11 of the 16 most- active currencies tracked by Bloomberg, as investors reduced bets on higher-yielding assets such as stocks and commodity- linked currencies. The Canadian dollar, along with those of Australia and New Zealand, were among the bottom six performers in the period.

‘Rethinking Positions’

“There’s been a lot of profit taking,” said Martin Lefebvre, a senior economist at Montreal-based Desjardins Group, the world’s eighth-largest credit union with about C$160 billion ($138 billion) in assets. “All those betting heavily on commodities are rethinking their positions.”

Raw materials generate 60 percent of Australia’s exports, 70 percent of New Zealand’s and more than half of Canada’s. Along with crude, copper, aluminum, nickel and zinc all retreated this week.

Canada is among the most export-dependent countries in the Group of Seven, generating about a third of its output in the first quarter from shipments of goods and services abroad. Canada ships about three quarters of its exports to the U.S.

Against the greenback, Canada’s dollar appreciated in May the most in almost six decades. It fell more than 6 percent against the U.S. dollar last month, the biggest drop among the 16 most-active currencies tracked by Bloomberg, as traders speculated the advance was overdone.

‘Phenomenal Appreciation’

“The pace of appreciation for the Canadian dollar was phenomenal, considering our biggest trading partner was not doing very well,” said Lefebvre.

Canada’s government bonds made investors 0.3 percent this week, according to a Merrill Lynch & Co. index. The 10-year note’s yield fell five basis points, or 0.05 percentage point, to 3.36 percent in five days. The price of the 3.75 percent security maturing in June 2019 rose 43 cents to C$103.32 in that period.

U.S. employers cut 467,000 jobs in June, compared with the 365,000 median forecast in a survey of economists by Bloomberg.

Canada’s dollar will climb to C$1.13 by the year-end, according to the median forecast of 34 economists and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Source