BLBG: Yen, Dollar Decline as Recovering Economy Damps Refuge Demand
Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The yen and dollar fell against the euro as improving economic data and central banker comments that the global recession is abating prompted investors to pile into higher-yielding assets.
The euro traded near the strongest level in more than two weeks against the greenback before a report forecast to show European industrial orders fell at a slower pace. Asian stocks continued a global rally after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week chances for near-term growth “appear good.” The Australian dollar rose a fifth day, recovering from losses this month amid concern China may slow lending and trim its demand for resources in the second half of the year.
“Bullish comments from Bernanke combined with positive data in the U.S. and Europe are helping calm anxiety about the global economy,” said Koji Fukaya, a senior currency strategist in Tokyo at Deutsche Securities Inc. The yen and dollar are likely to be sold against higher-yielding currencies as “risk- appetite improves.”
The yen fell to 136.08 per euro, the weakest since Aug. 14, as of 12:48 p.m. in Tokyo from 135.21 in New York on Aug. 21. The greenback slumped to $1.4341 per euro from $1.4326 in New York. The dollar rose to 94.88 yen from 94.38 yen.
Australia’s currency strengthened to 83.97 U.S. cents from 83.48 cents in New York last week. The currency advanced to 79.60 yen from 78.79 yen.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional shares rose 2.4 percent today, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rallied 3.4 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 2.2 percent in New York last week, touching a 10-month high, as sales of existing U.S. homes climbed.
Industrial Orders
Benchmark interest rates are 3 percent in Australia and 2.5 percent in New Zealand, compared with 0.1 percent in Japan and as low as zero in the U.S., attracting investors to the South Pacific nations’ higher-yielding assets. The risk in such trades is that currency market moves will erase profits.
The euro climbed toward the strongest level in a week against the Japanese currency as a Bloomberg News survey of economists showed orders at industrial companies in the euro region fell 28.3 percent from a year earlier in June following a 30.1 percent drop in the previous month. The European Union’s statistics office will announce the data in Luxembourg today.
German business confidence will rise for a fifth month in August, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the Munich-based Ifo institute releases its report Aug. 26.
“An expected rise in the Ifo index will lend some support for the euro, especially against the dollar,” said Masashi Nakamura, a Tokyo-based economist at Mizuho Research Institute Ltd., a unit of Japan’s second-largest banking group. The euro may advance to as high as $1.441 this week, he said.
Prospects are ‘Good’
“Prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good,” while “critical challenges remain,” including possible further losses for financial firms, Bernanke said Aug. 21 at a symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said at the conference the following day there were “some signs confirming that the real economy is starting to get out of the period of freefall.” This “does not mean at all that we do not have a very bumpy road ahead of us,” he said.
The dollar fell against 12 out of the 16 most-active currencies tracked by Bloomberg before reports this week expected to show durable goods orders rose and housing prices shrank at a slower pace.
Orders for durable goods, those meant to last several years, probably jumped 3 percent in July, reversing the previous month’s 2.5 percent decline, economists projected an Aug. 26 report from the Commerce Department will show.
Property Values
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas probably fell 16.5 percent in June from a year earlier, the smallest decline in almost a year, a separate survey showed. The report is due tomorrow.
The Aussie pared gains against the U.S. dollar after Australia’s Bureau of Statistics said today new vehicle registration fell 6.9 percent in July, snapping a three-month gain.
This combined with “lingering uncertainty about Australia’s relationship with China may weigh on the Australian currency,” said Toshiya Yamauchi, manager of the foreign- exchange margin trading department in Tokyo at Ueda Harlow Ltd.
The Aussie is little changed this month after rising 19 percent this year through July as China, the nation’s largest trading partner, slowed spending that spurred gains in commodities and bets Australia would be among the first to raise interest rates.
Aussie Options
Options to sell the Australian dollar in the next month cost 2.32 percentage points more than contracts to buy the currency on Aug. 18, a day after China’s Shanghai Composite dropped by the most in nine months. That’s the biggest premium on puts since Feb. 17, reversing the 0.445 percentage point extra that traders were willing to pay for the right to buy the Aussie in March, when it gained 8 percent.
Futures traders also decreased bets that the Australian dollar will gain against the U.S. dollar, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.
The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on an advance in the Australian dollar compared with those on a drop -- so-called net longs -- was 44,120 on Aug. 18, compared with net longs of 48,846 a week earlier.
To contact the reporter on this story: Yasuhiko Seki in Tokyo at yseki5@bloomberg.net.