"Signals are flashing that currencies, commodities and equities are all about to turn. There are too many signals across too many assets to ignore," said T.J. Marta, drawing attention to the American Association of Individual Investors survey's surge above 50 two weeks and subsequent fallback.On Monday, led by energy and materials shares, the major U.S. stock indexes all headed lower. Stocks, though, remained poised for monthly gains. At 10:50 a.m. Eastern time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU 9,460, -83.89, -0.88%) was down 71.42 points, or 0.8%, at 9,472.78. The S&P 500 Index (SPX 1,018, -10.71, -1.04%) had shed 9.38 points, or 0.9%, to 1,019.55, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP 2,006, -22.50, -1.11%) was off 19.49 points, or 1%, at 2,009.28.
The AAII survey, which measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish and neutral on the stock market over the coming six months, last week saw bullish sentiment falling to 34%, beneath the long-term average of 38.9%; neutral sentiment fell to 17.5%, below the long-term average of 31.1%; and bearish sentiment rose to 48.5%, above the long-term average of 30%.
The three previous occasions on which the index behaved in this fashion, the S&P 500 corrected, as it did in early 2007; peaked, as in October 2007; or saw a bear-market rally fail, sas was the case in May 2008, Marta said. |
