B D : Shining brightly, gold poised to hit $US1000
The gold price could soon rise to $US1000 an ounce following the recent rapid strengthening of its price, but is unlikely to remain above that level.
Since Monday the local spot price of gold has jumped from $US951.20 per fine ounce to an early high on Friday of $US997.30, before retreating to a little below $US990 in afternoon trade.
"It has moved almost $US40 in the space of two days, and we are within $US10 of it,'' said commodities strategist with the Commonwealth Bank, David Moore. "It could happen tonight or early next week. If you got a movement in the US dollar, gold could easily go to $US1000 tonight.''
Mr Moore said he doubted such highs were sustainable.
"There is uncertainty about the outlook, and to my mind the current gold price has impacted adversely on jewellery gold-fabrication demand, particularly in the important Indian market,'' he said.
"There are reports that Indian gold imports were poor during August, and the poor monsoon is also expected to affect rural incomes in India, with negative implications for gold demand,'' he said.
The all-time high of gold was set on March 17, 2008, when it hit a high of $US1030.80 per ounce.
Mr Moore said the reason for gold's recent movements were not related to events that typically pushed the metal higher.
"Oil prices haven't been especially strong by their recent standards, the US dollar has a fragile feel about it, but was more or less in a range seen during recent weeks.
"It does seem to have been a strong investment flow towards gold and that has certainly contributed to it,'' he said.
A report from market researchers Forecast Ltd on Thursday said fearful investors worried about a market correction after recent gains may have been investing in gold.
The report said other investment opportunities such as bonds and equities were increasingly viewed as expensive.
"It (a stronger gold price) may be seen as an indication that both bonds and equities are expensive and one or, more challengingly, both are riding for a fall,'' the report said.
Forecast Ltd said September was traditionally a seasonal highpoint for gold, and gains were usually reversed in October.
"If the gold rush is to extend to more extreme expensive levels, then this would be the bulls' window for a characteristic short, sharp spike before the bail,'' it said.
Locally listed gold stocks including Lihir Gold, Newcrest Mining and Newmont Mining have all posted strong gains in the past few days as the metal rose in value.
India's wedding season, often associated with stronger gold prices runs from late September to December.