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BLBG: Copper Falls for Fourth Day as Inventories Stoke Demand Concern
 
By Anna Stablum

Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Copper fell for a fourth day in New York, the longest losing streak in almost a month, and London as swelling inventories stoked concern that demand might weaken.

Stockpiles tracked by the London Metal Exchange gained 0.5 percent today to 319,800 metric tons, the highest since May 26, and are up 7 percent this month. In Shanghai, they rose 12 percent last week to 97,396 tons, the highest since June 2007.

“The buildup of inventories is weighing on prices,” Leon Westgate, an analyst at Standard Bank Group Ltd. in London, said in a report. “There was a period when people were confident about an economic recovery and prices were going up, and after a few days of price weakness, people are nervous again.”

Copper for December delivery shed 3.95 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $2.807 a pound at 8:25 a.m. local time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division. The contract slipped 0.7 percent last week, the second drop after seven gains. On the LME, copper for three-month delivery fell 1.4 percent to $6,164.75 a ton.

Prices dropped as the European Union’s statistics office said industrial production in the 16-nation euro area declined 0.3 percent in July from June, more than economists forecast.

Trade Dispute

In Shanghai, copper fell by the exchange-imposed 5 percent daily limit. A looming trade dispute between China and the U.S. weighed on prices, Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said in a report today.

China, the world’s biggest copper user, yesterday announced a probe into alleged dumping of American auto and chicken products, two days after the U.S. placed tariffs of 35 percent on automobile tires from the Asian nation. China “is now considering retaliatory action,” according to Weinberg.

“This would have negative repercussions on metal demand, as China and the U.S. are the two largest metal consumers globally,” he said.

Demand from China, where the government is spending 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) to stimulate the local economy, has helped copper to more than double this year. Imports of copper and products by China fell 20 percent in August from a month earlier to 325,098 tons, the Beijing-based customs office said on Sept. 11. Imports more than doubled in the first half.

End of Recession?

Europe’s economy probably returned to growth in the current quarter after governments spent billions of euros to pull the region out of the worst recession in more than six decades, the European Union said in an updated forecast.

The end of the recession “only signifies that economic activity levels have hit bottom,” Jeffrey Currie in London and other Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts wrote in a research note dated yesterday. Still, “with the economic expansion still largely ahead of us, we expect commodity levels to rise,” they wrote.

Rising demand and “limited production growth will push key commodities such as oil and copper into deficit in the near-to- medium term, lending substantial support to prices and returns,” Goldman Sachs said. The bank expects LME copper to rise to $7,650 a ton by the end of next year, the report shows.

Among other LME metals for three-month delivery, lead rose $22, or 1.1 percent, to $2,087 a ton after plunging 10 percent last week. The metal gained on reports that Chinese smelters, closed by a crackdown linked to environmental regulations, would remain shut after the National Day holiday on Oct. 1, Standard Bank’s Westgate said in a report.

Aluminum shed 1.1 percent to $1,825 a ton, and tin eased 1.4 percent to $14,200 a ton. Nickel fell 2.1 percent to $16,600 a ton, and zinc dropped 1.1 percent to $1,844 a ton.

Source