BLBG: Copper Advances as U.S. Retail Sales Indicate Economic Rebound
By Anna Stablum
Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Copper climbed in New York and London, ending a four-day losing streak, after stronger-than- expected U.S. retail sales added to signals of an economic rebound.
Retail sales gained 2.7 percent last month, the most since January 2006, Commerce Department figures showed today. Prices also advanced as investor confidence in Germany rose to the highest level in more than three years and Kenneth Lewis, Bank of America Corp.’s chief executive officer, said the U.S. economy may rebound more quickly than expected.
“The world has been waiting for Mr. and Mrs. America to start consuming,” David Thurtell, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in London, said by phone. “Consumer durables, and hence metal consumption, look likely to pick up.”
Copper for December delivery gained 2.65 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $2.8305 a pound in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division at 8:58 a.m. local time. The metal for three-month delivery rose 1.2 percent to $6,215.75 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange.
“There is a potential for a rebound that beats the forecasts,” Bank of America’s Lewis said of the U.S. economy, the world’s biggest, in a speech prepared for a conference in Tokyo. Economists had predicted a 1.9 percent increase in retail sales in the country, the second-largest copper user after China.
Germany’s ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of investor and analyst expectations increased to 57.7 from 56.1 in August. The nation is the third-largest copper consumer.
Copper Inventories
Copper stockpiles tallied by the LME expanded for a 13th day to 322,550 metric tons yesterday, the highest level since May 26.
“In terms of stock ratios, these are still low,” Nick Moore, an analyst at RBS Global Banking & Markets in London, said by telephone, adding that inventories account for 3.5 weeks of global consumption. “Ahead of a pickup in the world’s business cycle in 2010, it is a very lean level of inventory.”
Copper has more than doubled this year in London, helped by record first-half imports into China. Still, prices are down 13 percent from the last close before Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed a year ago today, helping to plunge the world economy into a recession that cut demand for raw materials.
The market for physical copper has “little momentum” for now, and activity from China is showing a “quieter pace,” Aurubis AG, the world’s largest maker of copper-wire rods, said in a note dated yesterday.
Demand Forecast
Demand for copper next year will outstrip supply by 200,000 tons, Desjardins Securities Inc. said in a report dated yesterday. The brokerage firm predicted a balanced market this year following a 300,000-ton surplus in 2008.
Copper will average $2.20 a pound ($4,850 a ton) this year, 10 percent above its prior forecast of $2, Desjardins said. It projected an average price in 2010 of $3 a pound, with “spikes possibly in excess of $4.”
Among other LME metals for three-month delivery, tin gained 1.1 percent to $14,350 a ton. LME stockpiles rose 2.6 percent to 22,250 tons, the highest level since June 2006. Between 50 percent and 79 percent of metal earmarked for next-day delivery was held by one party, exchange figures from Sept. 11 show.
Lead rose 2.6 percent to $2,159 a ton, and aluminum gained 0.6 percent to $1,845 a ton. Nickel advanced 1.3 percent to $16,849 a ton, and zinc rose 1.6 percent to $1,860 a ton.