BLBG: Copper Advances as U.S. Retail Sales Indicate Economic Rebound
By Anna Stablum and Millie Munshi
Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices rose, ending a four- day losing streak, after stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales added to signals of an economic rebound.
Retail sales gained 2.7 percent last month from July, the most since January 2006, the Commerce Department said. Sales were projected to rise 1.9 percent, the median of 73 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity. Copper prices have almost doubled this year on signs that the global recession is easing.
“The world has been waiting for Mr. and Mrs. America to start consuming,” said David Thurtell, a Citigroup Inc. analyst in London. “Consumer durables, and hence metal consumption, look likely to pick up.”
Copper for December delivery gained 1.9 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $2.8235 a pound at 11:45 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division.
“The V-shaped recovery just got a badly needed shot in the arm today as the consumer is back in the game in a big way,” Chris Rupkey, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi’s chief financial economist, said in an e-mailed note. “The outlook for the economy just brightened considerably.”
Copper fell 5.1 percent in the previous four sessions as rising inventories spurred concern that demand, especially from China, may be abating.
Today’s retail report “took out some of the nervousness” traders had about the sustainability of the economic recovery, said Lannie Cohen, the president of Capitol Commodity Services Inc. in Indianapolis.
Rising Inventories
Copper stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange rose 0.9 percent today to 322,550 metric tons, the highest level since May 26. LME inventories have gained for 13 straight sessions and are up 26 percent from this year’s low on July 14.
“In terms of stock ratios, these are still low,” said Nick Moore, an RBS Global Banking & Markets analyst in London. He said LME inventories account for 3.5 weeks of global consumption. “Ahead of a pickup in the world’s business cycle in 2010, it is a very lean level of inventory.”
Demand for copper next year will outstrip supply by 200,000 tons, Desjardins Securities Inc. said yesterday in a report. The brokerage firm predicted a balanced market this year, following a 300,000-ton surplus in 2008.
Copper will average $2.20 a pound this year, 10 percent more than forecast earlier, Desjardins said. It projected an average 2010 price of $3 a pound, with “spikes possibly in excess of $4.”
On the LME, the metal for three-month delivery rose $61.25, or 1 percent, to $6,201.25 a metric ton ($2.81 a pound).
Among other metals traded in London, nickel, zinc, tin, lead and aluminum gained.