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BLBG: N.Y. Natural Gas Set to Decline Below $3: Technical Analysis
 
By Reg Curren

Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas futures, which jumped 28 percent last week, may revisit seven-year lows after surging into an “overbought” area of resistance between $3.58 and $3.87 per million British thermal units, according to a technical analysis by Barclays Capital.

Gas tumbled 82 percent from a high of $13.694 per million Btu in July 2008 to touch $2.409 on Sept. 4. Gas then surged 57 percent through Sept. 18. The futures have entered a resistance zone and the downtrend is likely to resume, MacNeil Curry, a New York-based analyst at Barclays, said in an interview.

“We’re around the high end of this resistance zone and things are overbought,” Curry said. “This is still an environment where bounces should be sold. I would look for it to” test $2.409 again.

Natural gas for October delivery rose 32 cents, or 9.3 percent, to $3.778 per million Btu on Sept. 18 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

“The burden of proof remains with the bulls,” Curry said in a note to clients. “Since November 2008, overbought readings have coincided with market highs and a subsequent resumption of the bear trend.”

Gas futures have rallied and then sold off at least five times this year. Curry correctly forecast on July 23 that gas would plunge below $3.

Technical traders monitor patterns on daily charts for clues to price direction, and may sell or buy based on those signals.

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