Dec. Bonds are currently 11 lower at 118’22, the 10 Yr. Notes 3 lower at 116’23, the 5 Yr. Notes 1 lower at 115’03 and the 2 Yr. Notes unchanged at 108’08. We continue to hold the combination of short Dec. Bonds and short the Dec. Bond 116’00 put. I will be willing to do the long Dec. 10 Yr. Notes/ short Dec. Bonds spread at 3’04 premium the Bonds if the market allows.
Grains:
Yesterday Nov. Beans were 27 cents lower, Dec. Corn 2 lower and Dec. Wheat 1 lower. Over night Beans were 8 higher, Corn 3 higher and Wheat 6 higher. Yesterday the market gave the opportunity to cover the short leg of any call spreads with a strike price of 400’0 or higher below 2’0 leaving us long out of the money calls. We also remain long Dec. Wheat with an upside objective in the 490’0 area. If the Dec. Wheat trades above 487’0 either take profits or enter a protective sell stop 10 cents above your entry level.
Cattle:
Yesterday Oct. Cattle closed 57 lower at 8497 and the Dec. 37 lower at 84.52. I am still on the sidelines observing how the Dec. Cattle reacts once the 84.00 level is tested.
Silver:
Dec. Silver is currently 37 cents higher at 17.25. We remain long.
S&P's:
Dec. S&P’s are currently 6.50 higher at 1067.00. We remain long out of the money puts as both portfolio insurance and a speculative position.
Currencies:
As of this writing the Dec. Euro is 127 higher at 1.4804, the Swiss 94 higher at .9385, the Yen 105 higher at 1.0965 and the Pound 123 higher at 1.6315. We remain long out of the money puts in the Dec. Yen and long out of the money puts and/or put spreads in the Pound. The Dec. Dollar Index is currently 73 lower at 76.27.
Regards,
Marc
Marc Nemenoff
PFGBEST Research Team
800.935.6496
mnemenoff@pfgbest.com
Marc Nemenoff is a 31-year veteran of the futures industry. While attending graduate school at the Illinois Institute of Technology, Marc took a job as a clerk on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for Tabor Grain Co. He quickly found that his background in both math and problem solving techniques were adaptable to the futures markets as well as the career he had been pursuing in Architecture and Urban Planning. Having decided on a career change he quickly rose within the Tabor Grain Co. organization and became their analyst and operations manager for all products traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
In 1976 Mr. Nemenoff's responsibilities increased when he was granted full membership on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as Tabor Grain Co's. representative to the exchange. He was their head analyst and liaison to all branch offices. In addition, he was in charge of designing hedging strategies in both the livestock and financial sectors of the market, and writing the firms daily and weekly market letters.
In 1980 Mr. Nemenoff purchased his own membership on the C.M.E. and spent the next 12 years as an independent trader, trading in all markets with a concentration in live cattle as a spreader and market maker. As a member of the exchange he served on many committees including, Live Cattle, Nominating, Contributions, Public Relations and Advertising, and Orientation and Education. During this time he gave speeches to various groups at the behest of the exchange. These included, Agricultural Bankers, The National Cattleman's Assoc., various groups on the Role of the Market Maker, and various groups on the Role of Futures as a Risk Management Tool.
In 1991 Marc left the floor and spent his time as an independent trader and lecturer giving speeches at seminars on various topics. These included Livestock Trading, Interest Rate Futures, Spreads, Technical Analysis, and trading in the pit vs. being an outside speculator. He also taught classes as a guest lecturer at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Spreading, Technical Analysis, and Commodity Options.
Mr. Nemenoff describes his approach to the market as 75% technical and 25% fundamental. He is also a firm believer in the use of option strategies as a way of using leverage and minimizing risk when one has a long-term market strategy.
Disclaimer
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Alaron Trading Corp. its officers, directors, employees and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.
