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BLBG: U.S. Michigan Sentiment Index Rose to 73.5 This Month (Update1)
 
Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers rose this month to the highest level since January 2008 as the pace of job losses slowed and the economy started to pull out of the worst recession since the Great Depression.

The Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment increased to 73.5 in September, more than forecast, from 65.7 in August. A preliminary September reading was 70.2.

Federal Reserve policy makers this week indicated for the first time since August 2008 that the economy is accelerating, and signaled they will maintain stimulus measures to secure a recovery and reduce unemployment. The Fed said spending by households, while stabilizing, is still “constrained” by job losses, stagnant wages, lower home values and tight credit.

“People are seeing more signs that the economy is turning the corner,” said Gary Thayer, macro strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors in St. Louis. “If we had lower unemployment, sentiment would be a lot higher. The people who have jobs are less worried.”

Separate reports from the Commerce Department today showed orders for U.S. goods meant to last several years unexpectedly fell in August and new-home sales climbed to the highest level in almost a year as builders cut prices.

Stocks fluctuated following the reports. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.1 percent to 1,051.60 at 10:32 a.m. in New York.

The consumer-confidence index was forecast to rise to 70.5 this month, according to a Bloomberg survey of 65 economists.

Current Conditions

The University of Michigan measure of current conditions, which reflects Americans’ perceptions of their financial situation and whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items such as cars and homes, rose to 73.4, the highest in a year, from 66.6 in August.

The index of consumer expectations for six months from now, which more closely projects the direction of consumer spending, increased to 73.5, the highest in two years, from 65 in August.

Consumers in the survey said they expect an inflation rate of 2.2 percent over the next 12 months, compared with 2.8 percent in the August survey.

Over the next five years, the figures tracked by Fed policy makers, Americans expect a 2.8 percent rate of inflation, the same as in the August survey.

The final Reuters/University of Michigan consumer confidence report reflects about 500 responses, compared with 300 households for the preliminary survey.

Durables, Jobs

Bookings for durable goods dropped 2.4 percent, the worst performance since January. Excluding transportation equipment, orders were little changed.

The number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits dropped unexpectedly last week to the lowest in two months, a sign firings are slowing as the economy pulls out of the recession. Applications fell by 21,000 to 530,000 in the week ended Sept. 19, from a revised 551,000 the week before, Labor Department data showed yesterday in Washington.

The total number of people collecting unemployment insurance fell in the prior week to 6.14 million, lower than forecast.

The economy has lost 6.9 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007, the most of any downturn since the 1930s. The 216,000 drop in payrolls reported for August, meanwhile, was the smallest in a year and lower than economists projected.

‘Bottoming Out’

President Barack Obama last week said job losses in the U.S. are “bottoming out,” and pointed to gains in exports and manufacturing as signs the economy is expanding again.

The housing slump that crippled the economy is easing as foreclosure-driven price declines, tax credits to first-time buyers and near record-low borrowing costs have helped stabilize demand. While sales of existing homes in August had the first month-to-month drop since March, according to the National Association of Realtors, they were up 3.4 percent compared with a year earlier.

Growing demand has prompted builders such as KB Home to get back to work. Prices, which most economists forecast would be the last component of the market to turn, have begun to improve. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s price index for purchases was up 1.1 percent in the three months through July, the best performance since early 2006.

“We’re seeing a firming of prices in a number of markets, not all,” Eli Broad, founder of Los Angeles-based homebuilder KB Home, said this week in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “I think we have bottomed out in many markets.”

Housing Starts

Housing starts rose to a nine-month high in August, the Commerce Department reported last week, indicating residential construction may soon add to growth after subtracting from gross domestic product since 2006.

General Motors Co. said this week that it will add a third shift at three U.S. plants taking on additional production from factories slated to close or be idled. The facilities getting the new shifts are in Fairfax, Kansas; Fort Wayne, Indiana; and Delta Township, Michigan, GM said in a statement. The changes will restore 2,400 jobs, the Detroit-based company said.

“This is a really good day for GM employees,” Tim Lee, the company’s vice president of global manufacturing, said on a conference call. An additional 600 jobs will be restored at stamping and powertrain facilities, he said.

GM is adjusting its factory capacity after scaling back in a government-aided bankruptcy reorganization.

To contact the reporters on this story: Vincent Del Giudice in Washington vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net

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