FX: Currency Pair Overview: Dollar Roller Coaster Thursday Trade
Currency Pair Overview: Dollar Roller Coaster Thursday Trade - Oct 1 09 6:33 EDT
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Currency Pair Overview:
Dollar Roller Coaster Thursday Trade
Overall, the euro and the swissy saw some strong orders pushed into the market ahead of the European open, but the rest of the major pairs moved very little at that time. Even so, the majors retraced most of the move back, and since then market has moved mostly side-ways, without a clear direction of trend. Ahead, the U.S. session is expected to be very volatile, with the market expecting four red-flag reports.
Dollar Index Technical View: TheLFB Member Charts
4 Hour Chart: Long possibilities. Main price points: 75.83, and 77.25. Looking for: Break through the 77.25
The index has bounced higher from our Fibonacci support area, discussed yesterday. Wave c of wave II) has found the bottom somewhere around the 76.50 area, which must hold for a move higher near to the 77.25 wave I) high ares. If the 77.25 highs is taken out over the next sessions, then we will look for a higher wave III) move with the first target at 78.00 area.
Any break of 75.83 support will invalidate the wave count.
The euro (Eur/Usd 1.4670) headed slowly lower during the Asian session, but the real sell-off came only during the European open, when the euro plunged 70 pips in just a few minutes. For now, the euro is trading, slightly below the 20-day moving average, which was an important swing point over the last three days of trading. The last time when the euro closed below the 20-day moving average happened three weeks ago.
The pound (Gbp/Usd 1.6005) lost 80 pips during the overnight session, testing TheLFB S1 (1.5925), but the pair recovered every pip lost earlier in the day, and is now trading once again near Thursday’s opening price. In Wednesday’s trade, the pound formed a bearish daily chart pin-bar.
The aussie (Aud/Usd 0.8810) found to strength to set a new high for the current year during the early Asian session, but shortly afterward, the aussie turned around and declined approximately 50 pips. For now, the aussie is trading just above the neutral pivot point (0.8795), around the support area of the range developed during the prior U.S. session.
The cad (Usd/Cad 1.0720) gained about 50 pips since the day had started, retracing a small percentage of the downtrend seen during the prior day of trading. If the current uptrend continues, the cad will probably find strong resistance in the 1.0790 area, where the 20 and the 50-day moving averages can be found.
Trade Plan of the Day: TheLFB Trade Plan is Usd/Cad, one of the six that are available to members on the major pairs each day, plus four Jpy based cross pairs, plus S&P futures, oil, gold, and the dollar index.
The swissy (Usd/Chf 1.0410) opened the day briefly below the 20-day moving average, but the strong buy orders seen during the early European session sent it some 70 pips higher. To the upside, the swissy has to break above the 1.0450 area first, the place where the market topped in Wednesday trading, following what seemed to be SNB’s (Swiss National Bank) intervention.
The yen (Usd/Jpy 89.95) had again a very light day of trading on Thursday, but at lest, the yen managed to break above the 89.90 area, the same place where it spent the last European and U.S. sessions. This resilience to move come as some market participants fear that the BoJ (Bank of Japan) is tempted to intervene in the market, to devalue the Japanese yen.
