IBT: USD/JPY Charges Higher Following Disappointing Trade Balance
The USD/JPY is popping after Japan's Trade Balance came in much lower than analyst expectations coupled with a downward revision of the previous release. Analysts are eager to point out that Japan's exports declined at a slower rate. However, the Trade Balance still took a hit, telling us the improvement in imports far exceeded that in exports. The USD/JPY is climbing in reaction to the unexpected outflow of Yen in conjunction with a rally fueled by oversold conditions. The USD/JPY has managed to separate itself from 90 while climbing past our 1st and 2nd tier downtrend lines. However, topside volume is fading and the currency pair still faces our 3rd and 4th tier downtrend lines along with 9/21 highs. Meanwhile, there are many downtrend lines we can construct beyond these barriers due to the currency pair's extensive deterioration over the medium-term. Therefore, we are cautiously optimistic and will need further topside confirmation before considering revising our outlook on the USD/JPY over the longer-term. As for the downside, the USD/JPY continues to create breathing room. We find cushions in the form of our 3rd tier uptrend line along with 10/21 lows and the highly psychological 90 level.
Meanwhile, all eyes will be on tomorrow's wave of EU and British econ data long with continued Q3 results. The USD/JPY's correlation with U.S. equities it's a bit out of whack these days. However, any broad-based favoritism of the risk trade would likely benefit the USD/JPY's uptrend. Considering the GBP/USD and EUR/USD have limited topside technical barriers, the USD/JPY's present run could have more room to go over the near-term.
