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MW: Confidence drops for second straight month in Oct.
 
Assessment of current conditions lowest in 26 years


By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumers doubt that the much-touted economic recovery is under way, according to the latest report on consumer confidence released by the Conference Board on Tuesday.

The consumer confidence index was much weaker than expected, falling for the second straight month as the assessment of present-day conditions fell to its lowest level in 26 years.

"This indicator, and its component detail, appears to be pointing to a longer and more difficult journey to recovery than most would like to believe at the moment," said Josh Shapiro, chief economist at MFR Inc., in a note to clients.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 47.7 in October from an upwardly revised 53.4 in September, according to the survey of 5,000 households. Read full survey.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected the index to stay steady at around 53.2. See Economic Calendar.

The present situation index fell to 20.7 from 23.0 in September, the lowest since the early 1980s.

Stocks (INDU 9,933, +65.07, +0.66%) fell off sharply after the report was released. Treasury prices rose sending yields lower. The dollar strengthened. See story.

Labor market conditions played a major role in the grimmer assessment, said Lynn Franco, head of the consumer research center at the Conference Board, which is a private research group.

The percentage of consumers who said jobs were "hard to get" increased in October to 49.6% from 47.0%, while the percentage who said jobs were "plentiful" fell to 3.4% from 3.6%. The net jobs plentiful number worsened to -46.2 in October from -43.4 in the prior month.

This is an important and downbeat signal for the October unemployment report, which will be released in ten days, economists said.

The outlook over the next six months has also grown more negative. The expectations index fell from 73.7 in September to 65.7 in October. The outlook for jobs was also more negative. The percentage of consumers expecting more jobs in the months ahead fell to 16.3% in October from 18.0% in the previous month.

The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes dropped to 10.3% in October from 11.2% in September. Franco said this sentiment pointed to constrained spending during the Christmas holidays.

Buying plans, a volatile part of the Conference board report, were weaker in October.

In another report released Tuesday, the market value of U.S. homes in 20 major cities rose by 1.2% in August compared with July, the fourth monthly increase in a row, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor's. In the past year, prices are down 11.3% in the 20 cities.
Source