BLBG: Oil Set for $91 on Range Break, BarCap Says: Technical Analysis
By Grant Smith
Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil is set to reach $91 a barrel in New York after breaking through its four-month trading range and 200-week moving average, according to technical analysis by Barclays Capital.
Crude is poised to close above its 200-week mean for a third week after staying below this level for the past year. The commodity has also breached a range roughly between $60 and $76 that held from June to October, the bank said. This creates the potential to form a new range of similar size that may take prices in a “measured move” up to $91 a barrel, Barclays said.
“The breakout of that range gives an upside target to the $91 area,” Barclays analyst MacNeil Curry said in a telephone interview from New York.
Oil for December delivery traded at $80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 8 a.m. London time, above its 200- week moving average of $75.35. The last time the commodity held above this average was Oct. 10, 2008.
On Sept. 14, Barclays analysts correctly predicted that crude had found a floor near $67 to $68 a barrel, and might rebound. Since then, oil has fallen no lower than $65.05 and rose to a one-year high of $82 a barrel on Oct. 21.
Another sign that oil is poised to rise further is the formation of a “bullish flag” on Nov. 3, when prices dropped to the top of their previous trading range at around $76.55 a barrel before rebounding, Curry added.
“This indicates consolidation ahead of the resumption of the prevailing trend, and is supportive of upside in the near- term,” said Curry.