BLBG: Gold May Rise on Central-Bank Buying Speculation, Survey Shows
By Nicholas Larkin
Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may advance to a record on speculation that central banks and investors will purchase the metal to hedge against a declining dollar, a survey showed.
Seventeen of 23 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, or 74 percent, said bullion would rise next week. Four forecast lower prices and two were neutral. The metal for delivery in December was up 4.8 percent this week at $1,090.20 an ounce at noon yesterday in New York.
Gold futures climbed to a record $1,098.50 on Nov. 4 as the Reserve Bank of India said it bought 200 metric tons from the International Monetary Fund last month at an average price of $1,045 an ounce. Central banks will become net purchasers of the metal “over time,” Aram Shishmanian, the World Gold Council’s chief executive officer, said on Nov. 2.
The Indian purchase shows that “we are in the midst of a major change in the global currency arena,” said Tom Hartmann, an AltaVest Worldwide Trading LLC analyst in Mission Viejo, California. “The reason gold is faring so well is that there is no consensus as to what will replace the dollar. Uncertainty is what will drive gold higher.”
Bullion rose for four weeks before declining last week. The metal has advanced 23 percent this year as the Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s performance against six major currencies, has lost 6.8 percent. Gold and the dollar tend to move inversely.
“Investors waiting for that pullback realize that this train -- Asian banks buying gold -- has arrived at the station and they better get on board now,” said Adrian Day, chief executive officer of Adrian Day’s Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland.
The weekly gold survey has forecast prices accurately in 165 of 286 weeks, or 58 percent of the time.
This week’s survey results: Bullish: 17 Bearish: 4 Neutral: 2
To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net