BLBG: Oil Falls to a One-Month Low as U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops
By Mark Shenk
Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil dropped to a one-month low after a report showed that confidence among U.S. consumers declined this month, a signal that fuel demand will drop.
Oil fell as much as 1.8 percent as the Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment unexpectedly weakened. An Energy Department report yesterday showed that fuel consumption dropped last week to the lowest level since June. Supplies of crude oil, gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose.
“The market is honing in on all the bearish news that’s out there,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “For the last four to six weeks there’s been some positive economic news, but there’s no evidence that demand has improved.”
Crude oil for December delivery fell $1.14, or 1.5 percent, to $75.80 a barrel at 10:19 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices touched $75.60, the lowest since Oct. 15. Futures, which are down 2.1 percent this week, have climbed 70 percent this year.
Futures dropped below $76.50 for the first time since Oct. 15, after testing the level three times, a signal to technical traders that price declines will accelerate.
“We were able to break below important support at around $76.50,” said Peter Beutel, president of trading adviser Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut. “This was a decisive break from the recent range.”
Price declines accelerated after the consumer sentiment report showed a decrease to 66 from 70.6 in October. The gauge was projected to rise to 71, according to the median forecast 69 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Refiners Idle Units
Refineries operated at 79.9 percent of capacity, down 0.7 percentage point from the prior week, according to yesterday’s Energy Department report. The average rate during the first week of November over the previous five years was 87.1 percent of capacity.
“Stockpiles were up across the board and demand was down,” McGillian said. “The fact that product inventories rose with refineries operating at less than 80 percent of capacity signals that the economic malaise is hitting demand.”
Gasoline stockpiles rose 2.56 million barrels to 210.8 million last week, yesterday’s report showed. The gain left supplies 4.8 percent higher than the five-year average for the period. Supplies of distillate fuel climbed 349,000 barrels to 167.7 million, 29 percent higher than average.
“Demand is very weak,” Beutel said. “There will have to be a sharp selloff of the dollar to turn this market around.”
A weak dollar has bolstered commodity prices over the past two years as investors purchased raw materials as an alternative investment. The dollar traded at $1.4851 per euro, little changed from yesterday.
Saudi Upgrades
Saudi Arabia has started to expand and upgrade its oil and gas production and refining business at a cost of $100 billion to tap rising demand in Asia, Ali al-Naimi, the kingdom’s oil minister, said in a speech at Beijing University today.
“While we have been concerned over oil-price volatility and the contribution of other non-fundamental factors to such volatility, we have maintained that price extremes in the low and high ends are not sustainable,” al-Naimi said. “They are detrimental to oil producers and consumers alike.”
Brent crude for December settlement declined 68 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $75.34 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net