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AR: US dollar sinks on consumer data, retailers lift stocks up
 
NEW YORK, Nov 13, (Agencies): Investors were pulled in different directions on Friday, with a grim US consumer outlook tugging the dollar lower while upbeat comments from big US retailers helped stoke a rally in stocks. Euro zone data showed the region resumed growth, while a widening September US trade deficit compounded the selling of the US currency. “There is increasing evidence that the recovery in the US is much more vulnerable than previously thought, which provides another reason for traders to bail out of US dollars,” said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT Forex in New York. “The Federal Reserve has all the right reasons to (keep) monetary policy easy for a very long time,” she added. The volatile trading belies an uncertain investment environment where doubts remain over whether economic revival is taking a firm hold or still dependent on government stimulus and low interest rate policies.

US
Investors pushed back into the stock market a day after a slide as earnings reports boosted confidence about the pace of a recovery in the US economy. Major stock indicators advanced about 1 percent, including the Dow Jones industrial average, which rose 100 points after dropping 94 on Thursday. Reports from The Walt Disney Co. as well as retailers Abercrombie & Fitch Co and JC Penney Co offset worries Friday about a disappointing consumer confidence report and an increase in the nation’s trade deficit that was bigger than forecast. Disney said late Thursday that improved revenue at its cable, broadcast and movie studio units helped produce an 18 percent increase in its fiscal fourth-quarter profit. Abercrombie’s results were better than expected, while JC Penney raised its profit and sales forecasts. The news helped investors set aside some worry about an 18.2 percent increase in the trade deficit in September. The $36.5 billion deficit was the largest since January and more than the $31.7 billion imbalance economists had expected.

The wider deficit was driven by a big rise in imports, led by a jump in oil shipments. That overwhelmed a fifth consecutive increase in exports. Exports are expected to continue to rise as the dollar continues to weaken, which makes US exports less expensive to overseas buyers.
The market briefly stumbled after consumer confidence fell. The preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for November came in at 66.0, down from 70.6 in October. That made investors nervous that cautious consumers wouldn’t step up spending at the holidays.
In midday trading, the Dow rose 103.31, or 1 percent, to 10,300.78. The Dow’s drop Thursday broke a six-day winning streak, as oil prices tumbled on fresh signs of weak energy demand and a stronger dollar.
The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 9.75, or 0.9 percent, to 1,096.99. The Nasdaq composite index rose 21.22, or 1 percent, to 2,170.24.
The ICE Futures US dollar index, which measures the dollar against other currencies, fell 0.4 percent after rising the past two days.
Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at ChannelCapitalResearch.com, said investors are cautious about putting more money in stocks after the steep gains in the past eight months.
“The market is trying to figure out where it wants to go,” he said.
The S&P 500 index has jumped 60.7 percent in the past eight months from a 12-year low. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 5.73, or 1 percent, to 586.05.

Europe
European stocks closed higher on Friday, as upbeat earnings news from companies such as luxury goods provider Richemont more than outweighed weaker-than-expected US consumer sentiment data. The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares rose 0.4 percent to 1,019.41 points, its highest close since Oct 21, and just 0.7 percent short of a 13-month closing high. Over the week, the index rose 2.7 percent and is up more than 57 percent from the all-time low of March 9, as investors have seen several major economies emerge from recession. But the market had to contend with some downbeat macro data on Friday.

“I thought the market would respond more negatively to the US consumer data,” said Heino Ruland, strategist at Ruland Research, in Frankfurt. “It goes to show that people are convinced that the Federal Reserve will continue with accommodative, if not expansionary, monetary policy. Sometimes Asian markets react more to this sort of data the following Monday, as they rely more on the US consumer.” Corporate news helped to boost stocks. Richemont, which posted forecast-beating results, indicating the watch industry could be set for recovery, surged 5.6 percent. Swatch Group, which also makes watches, rose 2.7 percent.

UK
Britain’s FTSE 100 share index hit a 14-month closing high on Friday as gains in HSBC and commodity stocks outpaced weaker defensives, with British Airways also up after agreeing to merger terms with Iberia.
The FTSE 100 ended up 19.88 points, or 0.4 percent, at 5,296.38 points — the highest close since September 2008. The index is up 2.9 percent this week and has rebounded 53 percent since hitting a six-year trough in March.
Heavyweight bank HSBC, up 1.2 percent, added the most points to the index, with traders citing market talk that it may increase its dividend. The stock is up 8.5 percent this week, with investors cheered by strong results released on Tuesday.
Royal Bank of Scotland climbed 0.6 percent, but Barclays, Lloyds and Standard Chartered fell 0.2 to 1.3 percent.
Energy firms were stronger as BofA-Merrill Lynch raised 2010 crude price forecast to $85 a barrel. BG Group, Cairn Energy, Tullow Oil and BP added 0.5-2.1 percent.
Miners were higher, with Anglo American, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto rising 1 to 1.1 percent. Real estate issues were on investors’ wanted lists. British Land, Hammerson, Land Securities and Liberty International gained 2.3 to 3.9 percent.

Asia
Asian markets were mostly lower Friday amid investor uncertainty about the global outlook after Wall Street fell on weak energy demand.
Markets in Tokyo, Shanghai and Seoul declined, while Hong Kong and Taipei traded slightly higher after major US indexes slid by about 1 percent overnight.
Investors are trying to sort out conflicting signs from last week’s upbeat US growth data, lower oil prices and a weaker dollar, said Andrew Orchard, Asian strategist for Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong.
“We’re in a bit of a holding pattern. We have conflicting forces,” Orchard said.
In Japan, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 was down fell 32.37 points, or 0.3 percent, to 9,772.12. China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1 percent to 3,141.87 while the Shenzhen Composite Index for China’s smaller second exchange lost 0.7 percent to 1,133.29.

Elsewhere, Seoul’s Kospi was off 0.3 percent at 1,570.42. Singapore’s market declined 0.4 percent, while Sydney shed 0.8 percent to 4,710.3. Hong Kong’s market was up 0.1 percent to 22,421.77.
That overshadowed an unexpectedly strong jobs report by the Labor Department, which said new unemployment claims fell last week to the lowest level since January.
The US government said last week the economy grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter, its strongest performance in two years. “The surprise on growth in the US should have people a bit more optimistic,” said RBS’s Orchard. “That has been a bit of a surprise.”
Oil eased to just above $76 a barrel in Asia, with benchmark crude for December delivery down 15 cents at $76.79 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract tumbled $2.34 to settle at $76.94 on Thursday.
Gold prices slipped 80 cents, or about 0.1 percent, to $1,105.8 an ounce.

Oil
Oil prices fell on Friday, touching the lowest level in a month as bulging fuel inventories in the United States stirred demand concerns.
US crude futures traded down 60 cents to $76.34 a barrel by 11:23 EST a.m. (1623 GMT), after earlier touching $75.57 a barrel, the lowest level since mid-October. Brent crude futures fell 43 cents to $75.59 a barrel. Crude’s losses extended a 3 percent drop on Thursday after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported crude and product stocks in the world’s largest energy consumer rose more than expected last week. The 1.8 million barrel rise in US crude oil stocks and 2.5 million barrel rise in gasoline stocks came as data showed demand still trailing year ago levels.

Fuel consumption in the United States and other large industrialized countries was battered by the economic crisis, pushing crude prices off record highs near $150 a barrel in July 2008 to below $33 a barrel in December. Prices have recovered since then as markets look toward an economic rebound that could boost oil demand. “Crude futures are down, still hurt by Thursday’s dismal inventory report showing petroleum inventories rose, with demand down, even though refinery rates were down a lot,” said Gene McGillian, analyst for Tradition Energy. “There’s a battle in the oil markets between bearish fundamentals and expectations on when the economy turnaround will come.” US consumer sentiment fell in early November to the weakest in three months amid grim expectations for job and income prospects, a survey showed on Friday. Energy experts say current fundamentals may not support prices.

Currencies
The euro moved higher against the dollar Friday, bolstered by news the eurozone had pulled out of recession and in spite of a disappointing reading on US consumer confidence. The single European currency in late-day trade was at $1.4918 against 1.4845 late Thursday in New York. The dollar was meanwhile trading at 89.53 yen, down from 90.34. Europe’s deepest recession since World War II officially ended on Friday when the world’s biggest single trading bloc joined Japan and the United States in returning to growth, official data showed. Both the 16-nation eurozone and the 27-nation European Union as a whole, home to half a billion people, posted growth — of 0.4 percent in the mainstay single currency area and 0.2 for the whole EU in the third quarter. “Overall eurozone growth at 0.4 percent was weaker than expected although it confirms that the region moved out of recession in the period,” said analyst Jane Foley at online trading site Forex.com

Growth of 0.7 percent in Germany, Europe’s most powerful economy, and 0.3 percent in France, lay behind the improvement across the eurozone. The eurozone economy had shrunk by 0.2 percent between April and June after a record collapse of 2.5 percent in the first three months of the year. In London on Friday, the euro was changing hands at $1.4918 against $1.4845 late on Thursday, 133.57 yen (134.11), 0.8937 pounds (0.8950) and 1.5093 Swiss francs (1.5102). The dollar stood at 89.53 yen (90.34) and 1.0117 Swiss francs (1.0173). The pound was at $1.6693 (1.6580).

Gold
On the London Bullion Market, the price of gold later fell to $1,104 an ounce at the fixing from $1,114.75 an ounce late on Thursday.

Source