BLBG: Oil Rises From One-Month Low on Weaker Dollar, Japan’s Growth
By Mark Shenk
Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose from a one-month low as the dollar weakened and Japan’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in more than two years, bolstering confidence that the global economy and energy demand are recovering.
Oil climbed as much as 1.6 percent as the U.S. currency’s drop encouraged the purchase of alternative investments. The gross domestic product of Japan, the third-biggest oil consumer, grew at a 4.8 percent pace, more than the forecasts of all 20 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
“The dollar and investor flow are pushing commodities higher across the board,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy with MF Global in New York. “We are seeing evidence that the stimulus is working as Japan leaves recession. Eventually demand will pick up, pulling us higher.”
Crude oil for December delivery rose 69 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $77.04 a barrel at 9:01 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 73 percent this year.
The dollar traded at $1.4962 per euro, compared with $1.4903 on Nov. 13. The greenback is 6.6 percent lower against the common currency this year.
“There is going to be continued downward pressure on the dollar, which will be supportive of prices,” said Mike Wittner, head of oil research at Societe Generale SA in London. “We are still in this range that we have been in for three weeks. There are still question marks about demand and inventories.”
Crude fell 59 cents to $76.35 a barrel on Nov. 13, the lowest settlement since Oct. 14, after an unexpected decline in U.S. consumer confidence. Prices dropped 1.4 percent last week as jobless claims in the world’s largest economy increased, fuel stockpiles rose and the nation’s refiners reduced operating rates to a 13-month low.
Brent crude oil for January settlement climbed 69 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $77 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
OPEC Meeting
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries won’t increase its output quotas when it meets in December, Qatar’s Energy Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah told Bloomberg News in Tokyo today.
“I don’t think they will have any reason to change quotas,” said Wittner. “They would like to keep prices where they are, that’s the bottom line.”
OPEC will meet on Dec. 22 in Luanda, Angola, to discuss output targets after agreeing to leave them unchanged at the past three meetings. The group’s compliance with the production cuts slipped to 60 percent in October from 62 percent in September, it said in a report on Nov. 11.
The producer group is “happy” with prices at current levels, according to OPEC’s president, Angolan Oil Minister Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos.
Oil is at a “good level,” he said today at a conference in Abu Dhabi. “I think that the economy can recover at this price” and even $80 a barrel “is not too high,” he said.