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BLBG: Crude Oil Trades Near $79 on Recovery Optimism, Weaker Dollar
 
By Christian Schmollinger

Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil traded near $79 a barrel in New York after rising the most in six weeks on optimism fuel demand will increase amid improved prospects for an economic recovery in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consumer.

Oil prices eased today as traders sold futures to lock in yesterday’s 3.3 percent gain as equities climbed to 13-month highs. Stock markets rose after U.S. retail sales increased more than forecast and Asian leaders pledged to maintain stimulus spending. Crude also gained as the dollar weakened, increasing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

“As usual after we get these big gains you always have a bit of profit-taking coming in,” said Tetsu Emori, a commodity fund manager with Astmax Ltd. in Tokyo. “The markets are following equities and as long as the weak dollar continues commodity prices will head higher.”

Crude oil for December delivery traded at $78.64 a barrel, down 26 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:51 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract rose $2.55 to settle at $78.90, the biggest gain since Sept. 30. Futures are up 76 percent this year.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.5 percent to 1,109.3 yesterday in New York and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.3 percent. Both reached the highest levels since Oct. 2, 2008.

“U.S. dollar movements and the strength in the U.S. equity markets were all positives for oil,” said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd. in Sydney.

OPEC Meeting

The 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group, which represents 54 percent of the global economy, said in Singapore that it will maintain economic stimulus measures until there is “durable” growth. The statement pushed the dollar lower against the euro. The greenback was at $1.4968 per euro at 1:02 p.m. in Singapore from $1.4970 yesterday.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries won’t increase its output quotas when it meets in December, Qatar’s energy minister, Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, told Bloomberg News in Tokyo yesterday.

OPEC will meet on Dec. 22 in Luanda, Angola, to discuss output targets after agreeing to leave them unchanged at the past three meetings. The group’s compliance with the production cuts slipped to 60 percent in October from 62 percent in September, it said in a report on Nov. 11.

“There is evidence of improvement in oil demand in countries, particularly China,” Moore said. China reported last week October net oil imports of 18.98 million tons, the second- highest volume on record.

Retail Spending

October retail sales in the U.S. rose 1.4 percent, Commerce Department figures showed yesterday in Washington. Sales were projected to climb 0.9 percent, according to the median estimate of 66 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

U.S. crude-oil inventories probably rose last week as imports increased, a Bloomberg News survey of analysts showed.

Stockpiles of crude climbed 1.2 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 13 from 337.7 million the prior week, according to the median of 11 estimates by analysts before an Energy Department report this week.

Refineries operated at 79.9 percent of capacity, unchanged from the previous week, according to the median of responses.

Gasoline inventories probably climbed 820,000 barrels from 210.8 million the week before, the survey showed. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, declined 750,000 barrels from 167.4 million the prior week, according to the survey.

The Energy Department is scheduled to release its weekly report tomorrow at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

Brent crude oil for January settlement fell as much as 43 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $78.33 a barrel, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $78.56 a barrel at 12:48 p.m. Singapore time. The contract climbed $2.45, or 3.2 percent, to end the session at $78.76 a barrel yesterday.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net.

Source