RTRS: Dollar stuck near 15-month lows on benign rate view
By Anirban Nag
SYDNEY (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was off 15-month lows on Tuesday, but its broad downtrend was intact after senior Federal Reserve officials reinforced a view that U.S. rates would stay low for a while, giving dollar funded carry trades a boost.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled U.S. rates will stay at zero for some time in a New York speech. He also gave lip service to a strong dollar but did not promise any particular support for it.
"He is telling us that despite the greenback's rapid decline, despite a rapid increase in risk appetite and the 'cross-currents' to inflation this represents, despite all that we are going keep rates at an exceptionally low level for an extended period," said Adam Carr, senior economist at ICAP.
"The Fed has no intention of pre-empting anything looking forward, or risk managing anything."
The euro edged lower to $1.4955, off a high of $1.5015 struck on Monday, as it ran into some profit booking in the Asian session.
The dollar index .DXY was up 0.1 percent at 74.99, but only just off a 15-month low of 74.679.
The index seemed to have found some support around the 74.75 level for now. Still, a decisive break below this level could be crucial since it would raise the risk of a disorderly decline in the dollar. Also, a daily and weekly close below that level could result in a renewed bout of weakness.
The yen held ground around 89 per dollar, with major resistance seen around the 88.40 mark. It has gained more than 0.7 percent in the previous session.
"U.S. market rates dropped overnight across the board and that weighed on dollar/yen," said Tomoko Fujii, senior currency strategist at Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch in Tokyo.
The market was also looking at launches of Japanese mutual funds on Tuesday, with several new funds focusing on overseas assets and offering choices of foreign currencies such as the South African rand, the Australian dollar and the Brazilian real.
"These should serve as a temporary yen negative," said Fujii. "But the underlying story hasn't really changed, so the dollar/yen should be set for an eventual testing of the October low of 88.01."
Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed, said the dollar's decline so far has not been disorderly. He said the commitment to keep rates low for an extended period can create the potential for carry trades and that the Fed was fully aware of this risk.
Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said the low interest rate policy was meant to encourage investors to move into riskier assets and there are no signs yet of an asset bubble building up in the United States.
The Aussie lost height, retreating from 15-month highs of $0.9407 to $0.9335, after minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) last board meeting showed the pace of further tightening was uncertain.
As a result, investors were pricing in about a 60 percent chance of a December rate rise, down from 72 percent earlier in the day.
Markets are now on the watch for any comments on currencies from U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao. They are scheduled to address a press conference at 0415 GMT.
At the weekend the United States and China sparred over exchange rates at a meeting of Asia Pacific leaders, a move that quashed speculation China may allow some further yuan appreciation in coordination with Obama's first trip to China.