GL: Big Commodity Index Funds to Influence Year End Markets
Summary
DJ / UBS announced changes in their commodity index allocations. The new allocations will likely push corn much higher, and the oil refining spread narrower.
Analysis
Index Funds might have to buy as many as 150,000 year end corn contracts if the entire Index Fund trade reallocates along the same lines.
Using an estimated $220 billion invested in Commodity Index Funds, and allocating to each of the respective asset classes ... the 2010 allocation would have to rise from $12.59 billion dollars to $15.6. That increases the corn position from 3.15 to 3.90 billion bushels ... and increase of something like 150,813 contracts.
Soybeans would increase a mere 13,775 contracts while wheat would fall 7,329 contracts.
Crude oil allocations would rise 16,500 contracts, product exposure would fall by 1/3 that amount.