WSJ: WORLD FOREX: Dollar Rallies Amid Concerns About Economy
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The dollar held on to its gains against the euro and other higher-yielding currencies Friday morning as revived concerns about how fast the global economy will rebound prompted investors to shun riskier assets.
Declines in stocks, gold and oil that began earlier in Asian and European trading continued early in New York as demand for growth-sensitive and riskier assets evaporated. That pushed the greenback to intraday highs against its major rivals.
Adding to the overall negative sentiment were comments by the head of the European Central Bank, hinting on removal of credit support lines, as well as the recognition by Japan that its economy fell into deflation again.
Friday morning in New York, the euro was at $1.4837 from $1.4925 late Thursday, according to EBS via CQG. The dollar was at Y88.96 from Y89.03, while the euro was at Y132.03 from Y132.85. The U.K. pound was at $1.6487 from $1.6658. The dollar was at CHF1.0189 from CHF1.0129.
The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six currencies, was at 75.674 from 75.264.
In earlier European trading, the euro had dropped as far as $1.4800, its lowest level in more than two weeks. Oil slid as much as 1.4% to $76.35 a barrel.
The euro is likely to remain depressed in New York trading as investors tinker with positions ahead of the shortened Thanksgiving holiday week, said analysts. U.S. stocks are set to open lower, weighed down by disappointing earnings from Dell.
Investors began Asian trading on a negative tone after Japan's government Friday officially declared that the economy has fallen into deflation due to weak domestic demand. The government also cautioned that continuous price declines could spell trouble for the economy's nascent recovery.
Meanwhile, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said Friday it is "too early to say" that the crisis is over, but added that banks should brace themselves for a "timely," though gradual, reduction of support from the ECB, in particular with respect to the generous refinancing help they have received.
Adjustments to investors' positions ahead of Thanksgiving week in the U.S. are also weighing on price action in currency markets.
"Typically right before a holiday, there's some squaring up of positions, paring back of risks, taking money off the table, so it's essentially what we're seeing here," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon. "It's not surprising that we're testing the lower range for the euro/dollar right now, going into a Friday."
These technical factors end up playing a bigger role in the absence of major economic data, analysts said.
"Economic data will still be key going forward but we will need to see some very nice numbers to push through 1.500 in the next couple of weeks," said Jane Foley, a research director at Forex.com in London.
The U.K. pound is also under pressure, sinking to below $1.6500 and falling to the lowest in more than two weeks.
Nationwide reported that growth in U.K. unemployment during 2010 will put downward pressure on house prices. The pound was also still suffering from Thursday's report showing that government borrowing hit a new record October high.
Canada Morning
The Canadian dollar is lower early Friday, continuing to languish at its lowest levels in almost two weeks on sustained global risk aversion and fresh declines for gold, oil, and other commodity prices.
With concerns about dwindling year-end liquidity also beginning to weigh on higher-yielding currencies like the Canadian unit, "the risks remain tilted to the topside for the U.S. dollar-Canada" pair, said George Davis, chief foreign exchange technical analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.
Early Friday, the U.S. dollar is at C$1.0710 from C$1.0628 late Thursday.