BLBG: Canadian Currency Weakens as Crude Oil, Global Equities Slide
By Chris Fournier
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Canada’s dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart as crude oil, the nation’s largest export, and global equities dropped, diminishing the appeal of currencies tied to growth.
Canada’s dollar, nicknamed the loonie for the image of the bird on the C$1 coin, was among the five worst performers versus the greenback among its 16 most-traded counterparts tracked by Bloomberg, along with the currencies of such fellow commodity exporters as New Zealand, Australia and Norway.
“The currency landscape is indicative of a risk aversion tone,’’ said Jack Spitz, managing director of foreign exchange at National Bank of Canada in Toronto.
The Canadian currency depreciated 0.3 percent to C$1.0587 per U.S. dollar at 4:22 p.m. in Toronto, from C$1.0556 yesterday. It gained 2.5 percent this month. One Canadian dollar buys 94.46 U.S. cents.
The loonie pared losses as U.S. stocks trimmed a decline after minutes of the Federal Reserve ‘s Nov. 3-4 meeting showed policy makers reduced forecasts for the U.S. jobless rate in 2010 and 2011 as the economy rebounded. They agreed at the meeting to keep the benchmark lending rate near zero “for an extended period” as long as inflation expectations are stable and unemployment fails to decline.
The minutes may be “a small equity positive, which in turn would be a small U.S.-dollar negative,’’ said JP Blais, vice president of foreign exchange in Toronto at Bank of Montreal, Canada’s fourth-largest lender. “If borrowing costs are going to be lower for longer, that might leverage people into buying more equities.”
Bonds Rise
Government bonds climbed, with Canada’s benchmark 10-year note’s yield falling nine basis points, or 0.09 percentage point, to 3.28 percent, the lowest level since Oct. 8. The price of the 3.75 percent security maturing in June 2019 increased 72 cents to C$103.81.
The loonie will strengthen to C$1.03 by the end of the first quarter next year, according to the median forecast of 38 economists and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Crude for December delivery dropped 1.9 percent to $76.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after rising as much as 0.3 percent to $77.80. Crude rose 70 percent this year.
The MSCI World Index, a gauge of equities in 23 developed nations, retreated 0.5 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 0.1 percent after earlier falling 0.8 percent.
Jobless Outlook
Fed policy makers predicted the jobless rate will range from 9.3 percent to 9.7 percent in next year’s fourth quarter, down from a June projection of 9.5 percent to 9.8 percent, minutes of this month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed. The unemployment rate in October was 10.2 percent, a 26- year high, the Labor Department said on Nov. 6.
A report in Washington today by the Commerce Department showed growth from July to September in the economy of the U.S., Canada’s biggest trade partner, was slower than the government estimated last month.
U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter, reflecting a smaller gain in consumer spending and a bigger trade deficit, Commerce Department data showed. The increase compares with a 3.5 percent gain the government previously estimated.
To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Fournier in Montreal at cfournier3@bloomberg.net