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MW: OIL FUTURES: Crude Lower In Asia On Equities, Dollar
 
By Gurdeep Singh
SINGAPORE (MarketWatch) -- Crude oil futures receded in Asian trade Thursday amid weaker Asian equity markets and a slight recovery in the U.S. dollar, paring strong overnight gains.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in January traded at $77.47 a barrel at 0637 GMT, down $0.49 in the Globex electronic session. January Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange fell $0.28 to $78.16 a barrel.

"The downward move in crude is consistent with the Asian equities and value of the dollar--which remains weak but has regained some strength from yesterday," said Victor Shum at Purvin & Gertz.

The market is expected to remain subdued until Monday as the Nymex floor trading is closed today and the session tomorrow will be shortened.

Crude settled 2.6% higher Wednesday on the back of a weaker dollar, stronger stocks and what some considered to be bullish U.S. inventory data.

Crude has remained locked in a tight range for most of this month with gains capped by weak fundamentals and a generally weak U.S. dollar curbing losses.

In fact, crude prices are less volatile than they have been in at least a decade, Barclays Capital research analysts said in a note.

Over the past 28 trading days crude has been bounded between $74.50 a barrel and $78 a barrel, the analysts said. "For it to have remained locked within a $3.50 band for such a long period represents a remarkable reduction in realized interday volatility."

Crude could spend most of the remaining days of this year within a somewhat broader $75-$82-a-barrel range, Purvin & Gertz's Shum said.

"The drive from (a weakening) dollar will be there--but with that, gold has managed to make new peaks while crude has remained at the low end of the current trading range," he noted.

The reason: Gold doesn't face the strongly bearish supply-demand dynamics that crude does.

"Crude has already priced in an economic and demand recovery, but the sustainability of that recovery still looks uncertain," Shum said.

Demand in the U.S.--the world's largest energy consumer--remains weak, and that could pull crude below the pivotal $75-a-barrel mark, Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note.

"We continue to view this widening in the time spreads as an important bearish omen, one suggestive of further crude price declines toward the $70 area...some downside price acceleration appears likely next week with even a slightest push from a strengthening dollar or selloff in the equity markets," he said.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for December--the benchmark gasoline contract--fell 149 points to $1.9827 a gallon, while December heating oil traded at $1.9698, 203 points lower.

ICE gasoil for December changed hands at $613.00 a metric ton, up $3.75 from Wednesday's settlement.

Source