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BLBG: Copper May Drop on Speculation Prices No Longer Reflect Demand
 
By Anna Stablum

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Copper, little changed in New York today, may decline from its highest this year on speculation that prices no longer reflect the outlook for supply and demand.

Inventories in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange expanded for a 23rd day and to the highest since April. Prices more than doubled this year on expectations that supply would fail to keep pace with an advance in demand. China, the world’s biggest user, imported record amounts in the first half.

Globally, “it is unclear whether growth will be strong enough to offset slowing Chinese offtake,” Fraser Phillips, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto, wrote in a report today. Refined copper exports by China jumped to the highest level in 14 months in October. Imports declined for the third time in four months.

Copper for March delivery fell 1.2 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $3.2465 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit at 8:53 a.m. local time. Earlier it reached $3.2745, the highest since September last year. Copper for delivery in three months dropped 0.3 percent to $7,105 a metric ton on the LME.

Comex copper’s 14-day relative strength index, a gauge of whether a raw material is overbought or oversold, was at 65.9, nearing the level of 70 that signals an impending drop to some analysts and investors who study technical charts.

The U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge of the currencies strength relative to six counterparts, was unchanged at 74.669, after advancing 0.4 percent yesterday. A stronger dollar can sap demand for commodities denominated in the currency, from investors holding other monies.

Aluminum Declines

Among other LME metals for three-month delivery, nickel fell 0.9 percent to $16,160 a ton. Aluminum dropped 0.3 percent to $2,150 a ton after reaching $2,166, the highest since October last year. Lead declined 1.2 percent to $2,453.5 a ton, and zinc fell 0.5 percent to $2,417.75 a ton. Tin slipped 0.3 percent to $15,200 a ton.

Europe’s service and manufacturing industries expanded at the fastest pace in two years in November. A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries in the 16-nation euro area increased to 53.7 from 53 in October, London-based Markit Economics said today.

Gross domestic product in the 16-nation euro region rose 0.4 percent from the second quarter, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest level in more than a year, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington.

To contact the reporter on this story: Anna Stablum in London at astablum@bloomberg.net

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