BLBG: Retail Sales in U.S Exceeded Forecasts in November (Update1)
By Bob Willis
Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers rose more than forecast in November, a sign consumer spending is gathering speed heading into 2010.
The 1.3 percent increase followed a 1.1 percent gain the prior month that was smaller than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Purchases excluding autos climbed 1.2 percent, also more than anticipated and the biggest gain since January.
Households have kept buying automobiles even after government incentives expired, showing the biggest part of the economy was weathering the worst employment slump in the postwar era. The Obama administration is proposing new initiatives in a bid to create jobs, while Best Buy Inc. is among retailers using discounts to lure budget-conscious holiday shoppers.
“Consumer spending continues to surprise on the upside as the economy moves further away from the end of the recession,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. In New York, said before the report. “The labor market is showing signs of stabilization and this is giving consumers greater confidence to spend a little more.”
Stock-index futures added to earlier gains after the report. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 0.6 percent to 1,103.9 at 8:32 a.m. in New York. Treasury securities fell, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year note up to 3.53 percent from 3.50 percent late yesterday.
Exceeds Forecast
Retail sales were projected to rise 0.6 percent after an originally reported 1.4 percent gain in October, according to the median estimate of 79 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Forecasts ranged from a decline of 0.8 percent to a gain of 1.3 percent.
Excluding automobiles, purchases were forecast to increase 0.4 percent, according to the survey median.
Auto sales are climbing back after plunging in September, the month after the government’s “cash-for-clunkers” plan expired. Purchases at car dealers increased 1.6 after jumping 7.1 percent in October.
General Motors Co., Toyota Motor Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler Group LLC all posted November sales that beat analysts’ estimates. The seasonally adjusted sales rate was 10.9 million vehicles, up from 10.45 million in October, according to industry figures released last week.
Filling station sales increased 6 percent, the most since June, today’s report showed.
Gasoline Stations
The data aren’t adjusted for inflation so an increase in prices probably helped push up receipts. The average cost of a gallon of the fuel at the pump was $2.65 last month, up 9 cents from October, according to figures from AAA, the nation’s biggest motoring organization.
Excluding gasoline and autos, retail sales rose 0.6 percent last month after a 0.1 percent October gain, signaling the increase in spending was broad-based.
Electronics, building materials and grocery stores were among the gainers.
Excluding autos, gasoline and building materials -- the retail group the government uses to calculate gross domestic product figures for consumer spending -- sales climbed 0.5 percent after a 0.3 percent increase. The government uses data from other sources to calculate the contribution from the three categories excluded.
Signs the deterioration in the labor market is abating may help restore confidence and boost spending. A Labor Department report last week showed the economy lost 11,000 jobs in November, the smallest decline since the start of the recession in December 2007.
Responding to Discounts
Americans are responding to price cuts. Sales on Black Friday and the weekend after the Thanksgiving holiday advanced 0.5 percent as discounts on electronics and toys drew crowds, according to the National Retail Federation.
Best Buy, the biggest electronics chain, used $547.99 42- inch Samsung flat-panel TVs to lure shoppers. The retailer had bigger early-morning crowds than last year, said Brian Dunn, chief executive officer and president of the Eden Prairie, Minnesota-based company. He said shoppers would continue to see discounted pricing into the year-end holidays.
“You’re going to see great values throughout the holiday selling season,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Nov. 27.
TJX Corporation Inc. reported sales up 15 percent in the four weeks ended Nov. 28 from a year earlier. The operator of T.J. Maxx and other low-priced apparel retailers forecasts strong sales through the end of the year.
“We are confident in our momentum,” said Carol Meyrowitz, chief executive officer of TJX, said in a statement on Dec. 3.
Consumer spending will probably climb at a 1.7 percent annual rate this quarter, more than anticipated in November, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed this month. The world’s largest economy will expand at a 3 percent pace after growing 2.8 percent in the third quarter, the survey showed.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net