By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- The outlook for Japanese trading firms has brightened against a backdrop of higher price forecasts for commodities -- and Mitsubishi Corp. and Mitsui & Co. are likely to benefit the most, according to analysts. "We believe that consensus forecasts for the trading houses do not reflect the buoyant outlook for commodity prices," analysts at Macquarie said in a recent note to clients. By the end of the Monday morning trading session in Tokyo, shares of most trading houses were higher, with Mitsubishi Corp. (JP:8058 2,140, -85.00, -3.82%) (MSBH.Y 47.30, -1.80, -3.67%) , Japan's largest general trading company, climbing 0.7%. Its shares are up around 70% year-to-date. Elsewhere in the sector, Sumitomo Corp. (JP:8053 910.00, -4.00, -0.44%) (SSUMF 9.95, -0.10, -1.00%) was up 0.8%, shares of Mitsui & Co. (JP:8031 1,246, -32.00, -2.50%) (MITS.Y 274.37, -7.05, -2.51%) and Itochu Corp. (JP:8001 655.00, -14.00, -2.09%) (ITOC.Y 72.95, -0.75, -1.02%) each added 0.2%, but Marubeni Corp. (JP:8002 497.00, -8.00, -1.58%) (MARUF 5.48, -0.13, -2.25%) edged lower by 0.4%. Macquarie's global commodity team raised its 2010 price forecast last week on copper by 1.6% from its previous forecast to $7,165 tons, and on hot rolled coil steel by 4.1% to $639 per ton. It also raised its aluminum and hard coking coal forecasts by 12.5% each from the previous estimates. It expects average prices for aluminum of $1,985 per ton and for hard coking coal of $180 per ton in 2010. It also upped its estimate on iron-ore fines from Australia next year by 18.2% from the previous forecast to nearly $79 per ton. That would be an increase of 30% from 2009's level. 'Positive impact' Macquarie analysts said the changes in commodity price forecasts will have "a positive impact on the earnings outlook for [the fiscal years ending March 2011 and March 2012] for the trading houses" in Japan. Mitsubishi Corp. and Mitsui & Co. will be among the biggest beneficiaries of the upgrades, with a potential boost in profits at Mitsubishi likely due to a globally strong coking coal market and at Mitsui because of higher iron-ore prices, the analysts said. But they tempered the outlook by adding that "despite their strong performance year to date, both earnings and book valuations for the [trading houses] remain low." They also warned that while they continue to consider Mitsubishi the "best managed trading company with the highest quality assets," given its outperformance of its peers, it "may have less upside over the next few months" as Itochu and Mitsui benefit from the strong pricing environment for iron ore. On the other hand, Sumitomo Corp. will likely be a "late-cycle beneficiary of the group," the analysts said. "It should benefit from more signs of capex activity in the U.S., especially in the energy sector." Energy shares were indeed among the advancers Monday in Asia, ahead of a meeting of major oil producers Tuesday in Angola. See OPEC preview story. Nippon Oil Corp. (JP:5001 400.00, +10.00, +2.56%) (NPOIF 4.41, +0.08, +1.87%) was up 3.8% in Tokyo. In Sydney, BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP 73.30, +1.00, +1.38%) (AU:BHP 41.19, +0.35, +0.86%) added 1.8% and Oil Search Ltd. (AU:OSH 5.87, +0.08, +1.38%) (OISHF 4.95, -0.05, -1.00%) rose 0.4%. Overall, resource shares in Asia have already seen their share of gains in the wake of recent strength in metals and energy prices. Lihir Gold Ltd. (AU:LGL 3.18, +0.06, +1.92%) (LIHRF 2.99, -2.99, -50.00%) was up 2.2% in Sydney. Zijin Mining Group Co. (HK:2899 7.41, -0.19, -2.50%) (ZIJMF 0.98, -0.07, -6.67%) fell by 1.7%, but it has gained about 60% year-to-date. In wider market action, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.6%, Japan's Nikkei 225 Average climbed 0.6%, and South Korea's Kospi was up 0.1%. But China's Shanghai Composite lost 0.8% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index declined 0.4%.

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