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WSJ: OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Drops As OPEC Production Unchanged
 
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Crude futures fell slightly Tuesday as OPEC held production steady despite rising concerns about global oil inventory levels.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery recently traded 21 cents, or 0.3%, lower at $73.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange traded 28 cents lower at $72.71 a barrel.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries made no change to export quotas at the group's meeting Tuesday, an outcome widely anticipated in the oil market.

Oil prices are more dependant on OPEC members' adherence to the 4.2 million barrels a day in cuts agreed to last year. Compliance had approached 80% earlier in the year, but has slipped to around 60% recently.

"We talked about compliance," Shokri Ghanem, head of the Libyan National Oil Co., told Dow Jones Newswires. "We called on members to comply by each one's production quota."

OPEC's cuts helped stabilize global oil inventories earlier in the year, which ballooned as major economies slipped into recession. But the emergence of the U.S. and other large oil-consuming countries from recession has coincided with weakening OPEC compliance, and inventories have remained well above normal.

"(Market) participants may be unnerved by OPEC's continuing refusal to tighten export quotas...the cartel is lucky prices are not lower than they actually are," wrote Ed Meir with MF Global.

U.S. oil inventories are seen falling 1.1 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 18, according to a Dow Jones survey of analysts. Gasoline stocks are seen rising 1.1 million barrels, while distillate inventories, including heating oil and diesel, are expected to drop 2.6 million barrels. Refinery utilization is forecasted to rise by 0.4 percentage point to 80.4% of capacity.

Refiners are waiting for fuel inventories to drop further from multi-decade highs hit over the summer before raising their oil consumption. They're receiving less help from the U.S. economy than once thought. The U.S. Commerce Department on Tuesday dialed back its estimate for third-quarter gross domestic product growth to 2.2%, from 3.5% in an October estimate.

The revision conversely gave a slight bump to oil prices, as it weakened investor confidence in the dollar. A weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies, and crude futures, while a stronger dollar had sent oil prices as low as $72.88 a barrel earlier Tuesday morning.

The dollar was recently at $1.4313 to the euro, from $1.4265 earlier.

However, the GDP estimate could drag down equities, another market that has provided cues for crude futures this year, said Tony Rosado, a broker with GA Global Markets.

"The dollar was higher this morning, and that's why we broke down," Rosado said. "Now the dollar is doing the opposite, so we're going to have to pay attention to equity movements."

Front-month January reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, recently traded 32 points, or 0.2%, higher at $1.8723 a gallon. January heating oil traded 1.02 cents, or 0.5%, lower at $1.9350 a gallon.


-By Brian Baskin, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2453; brian.baskin@dowjones.com.

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