BLBG: Durables Orders in U.S. Probably Rose as Investment Picked Up
By Courtney Schlisserman
Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for U.S. durable goods probably rose in November as improving sales prompted companies to boost stockpiles and invest, economists said before a report today.
Bookings for goods meant to last several years increased 0.5 percent after declining 0.6 percent in October, according to the median estimate of 72 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Another report may show fewer Americans applied for jobless benefits last week.
Companies such as 3M Co. are among those anticipating they’ll increase spending on research and new products next year, which may help sustain growth and generate jobs. A record reduction in inventories over the first nine months of the year will also give factories reason to speed up assembly lines.
“Inventories are extremely lean, so manufacturers are seeing a nice pickup in demand,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities Inc. in Charlotte, North Carolina. “There’s certainly a lot of room to the upside for business investment.”
The Commerce Department is scheduled to issue the durable goods report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from a drop of 1.3 percent to a 2.1 percent increase.
Excluding transportation equipment, orders probably increased 1.1 percent after falling 1.3 percent in October.
Fewer Claims
A report from the Labor Department may show initial jobless claims fell to 470,000 last week from 480,000 in the previous seven days. Applications have held below 500,000 since the third week of November, the best performance in a year.
Combined sales at manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers have been increasing since June, giving businesses the confidence to begin updating machinery.
Purchases of equipment and software increased at a 1.5 percent pace in the third quarter, the first gain since 2007, the Commerce Department reported this week.
“Overall commercial spending is looking better than what we had hoped for,” Steve Felice, president of Round Rock, Texas-based Dell Inc.’s small- and medium-business division, said Dec. 21 in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We’re coming into this holiday season much more optimistic than a year ago.”
3M will increase capital expenditures next year by as much as 15 percent to about $1.05 billion, Chief Executive Officer George Buckley said Dec. 22. The St. Paul, Minnesota-based company will spend as much as $100 million to research new products, part of which will be used to hire 60 to 80 employees with doctorates, he said.
3M trimmed about 6,400 jobs worldwide since last year and Buckley said he anticipates no large reductions in 2010 unless conditions change.
Orders at Boeing Co., which are often volatile, may have limited last month’s projected advance. The world’s second- biggest airplane maker said it received bookings for nine aircraft in November, down from 14 the previous month and 20 in September.
Bloomberg Survey
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Initial Cont. Durables Durables
Claims Claims Orders Ex-Trans
,000’s ,000’s MOM% MOM%
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Date of Release 12/24 12/24 12/24 12/24
Observation Period 19-Dec 12-Dec Nov. Nov.
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Median 470 5170 0.5% 1.1%
Average 469 5158 0.6% 1.2%
High Forecast 490 5200 3.5% 3.0%
Low Forecast 450 5100 -1.3% 0.3%
Number of Participants 43 11 72 46
Previous 480 5186 -0.6% -1.3%
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4CAST Ltd. 465 --- 0.5% 2.0%
Action Economics 470 5200 0.5% 0.3%
Aletti Gestielle SGR 460 --- -0.3% ---
Ameriprise Financial Inc --- --- 0.2% 1.0%
Banesto 480 --- 0.7% ---
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi 461 --- 0.0% ---
Bantleon Bank AG --- --- 0.2% 1.1%
Barclays Capital 460 --- 1.0% ---
Bayerische Landesbank --- --- 0.4% 1.1%
BBVA 474 5132 0.4% 0.7%
BMO Capital Markets 475 --- 0.3% 1.0%
BNP Paribas 470 --- -1.0% ---
BofA Merrill Lynch Resear 475 --- 0.8% 2.0%
Briefing.com 465 5200 1.2% 0.3%
Calyon --- --- 0.2% 1.0%
Capital Economics --- --- 0.0% 0.5%
CIBC World Markets --- --- 0.8% 1.0%
Citi 460 --- 1.1% 1.2%
ClearView Economics --- --- 0.8% ---
Commerzbank AG 460 --- 0.5% 1.2%
Credit Suisse 470 --- 1.5% 2.5%
Daiwa Securities America --- --- 1.0% ---
DekaBank 470 --- 0.7% ---
Desjardins Group 475 --- 0.0% ---
Deutsche Bank Securities 475 --- 1.0% 1.0%
Deutsche Postbank AG --- --- 0.2% 0.8%
DZ Bank --- --- 0.3% 0.9%
Exane --- --- 1.2% 2.0%
First Trust Advisors 466 --- -0.5% 0.7%
Fortis --- --- 0.7% ---
Goldman, Sachs & Co. --- --- 0.0% ---
Helaba 475 --- 0.5% ---
Herrmann Forecasting 464 5120 0.3% 1.3%
High Frequency Economics 460 --- 0.5% 2.0%
HSBC Markets 475 --- 0.8% 1.3%
Ibersecurities --- --- 3.5% ---
IDEAglobal 470 --- 0.7% 0.4%
IHS Global Insight --- --- 0.0% ---
Informa Global Markets 465 5175 -0.2% ---
ING Financial Markets 475 --- 0.6% 0.7%
Insight Economics 475 5100 0.5% ---
Intesa-SanPaulo --- --- 0.5% 1.5%
J.P. Morgan Chase 470 --- 0.8% 1.2%
Janney Montgomery Scott L --- --- -1.3% 1.7%
Landesbank Berlin 460 --- 1.8% 2.5%
Landesbank BW --- --- 0.5% ---
Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc 485 --- --- ---
MF Global 465 --- 1.0% 1.5%
MFC Global Investment Man 465 5180 0.8% 1.3%
Mizuho Securities 490 --- 0.0% ---
Morgan Keegan & Co. --- --- 0.8% ---
Natixis --- --- 0.5% 1.0%
Nomura Securities Intl. --- --- 0.1% 0.8%
Nord/LB 470 --- 0.6% 1.0%
PineBridge Investments --- --- 2.1% 3.0%
PNC Bank --- --- 1.0% ---
Raiffeisen Zentralbank --- --- -0.7% 1.0%
Raymond James --- --- 1.1% 1.0%
RBC Capital Markets 475 --- -0.3% 1.2%
Ried, Thunberg & Co. --- --- -0.2% ---
Schneider Foreign Exchang 479 5157 1.1% 1.5%
Scotia Capital 450 5170 0.4% 0.7%
Societe Generale --- --- 1.0% 1.5%
Standard Chartered --- --- 0.2% 1.0%
Stone & McCarthy Research 450 --- 0.3% ---
TD Securities 465 5200 0.5% 1.5%
Thomson Reuters/IFR 470 --- 1.2% 0.8%
UBS 470 --- 1.0% 1.5%
University of Maryland 465 --- 0.5% ---
Wells Fargo & Co. --- --- 1.8% 0.9%
Westpac Banking Co. 470 --- 1.0% ---
Woodley Park Research --- --- 0.6% ---
Wrightson Associates 470 5100 -0.2% ---
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To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington cschlisserma@bloomberg.net