By Anna Stablum Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Copper, lead and other industrial metals may decline from current prices, after doubling last year, partly on expectations that supply will outpace demand, a survey of analysts showed. Copper for immediate delivery, the best performer last year among contracts of that maturity, will average $7,138 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange in 2010, according to the median of 23 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. While that’s 38 percent more than last year’s average, it’s 4 percent less than the closing price on Jan. 8. Copper supply will outpace demand by 63,500 tons this year, according to the survey. The estimates ranged from a surplus of 460,000 tons to a shortfall of 138,000 tons. Following is a table of estimates for the 2010 average for cash contracts traded on the LME, in dollars a ton, and forecasts for the balance between supply and demand. Copper Aluminum Zinc Lead Nickel Tin BofA ML 7125 2025 2125 2125 20000 Bernstein 5500 1800 1650 17100 Calyon 8000 2400 2500 2550 20000 20500 Cazenove 7716 2205 2425 17637 CITIC Sec. 6600 2200 2200 2200 17000 16500 Citigroup 7199 2214 2331 2330 16818 15271 Commerzbank 6500 2000 2200 2150 17400 15650 CPM Group 7250 2380 2620 2400 19000 15640 Credit Suisse 6393 1984 2094 17637 Essence Sec. 7300 2280 2400 2350 18000 16000 Fairfax 8250 2000 2500 2500 20000 JPMorgan 7100 2188 2538 2538 16750 15125 Macquarie 7165 1984 1929 2039 17637 15377 *MF Global 7138 2088 2250 2275 16625 14563 Mitsui Bussan 7017 2080 2290 2198 17870 16250 Natixis 7885 2370 2800 2700 19340 RBC Capital 6614 1764 1764 15432 RBS 6750 2200 1975 2250 14750 15000 SGCIB 7435 2134 2437 2569 21210 15705 Standard Bank 7375 2320 2330 2420 18875 17475 *Stan. Chart. 6700 2125 2090 2250 16500 14375 UBS 7275 2094 1984 1764 22046 13228 UniCredit 6800 2100 21000 Median 7138 2125 2270 2303 17637 15640 Vs 2009 avg. +38% +27% +37% +33% +20% +15% Vs Jan. 8 -4% -5.5% -8.8% -8.1% -1.1% -9.4% *= three-month contract Surplus/Deficit (’000s tons) High 460 2984 500 100 70 14 Median 63.5 1000 217 11.5 16 5 Low -138 150 -33 -86 -8.3 -1 To contact the reporter on this story: Anna Stablum in London at astablum@bloomberg.net

Source