CN: Gold may remain range bound at $1,120 & $1,145
Gold remains range-bound between $1,120 and $1,145. With a public holiday in the US today, this trend is set to continue.
The euro remains under pressure. With Greece’s CDS rising (now at 33 bps), the market sees the likelihood of a Greek default higher than at any time in the past two years (even higher than the months following Lehman’s collapse).
The option market sees the probability of the euro falling to $1.4200 within the next month at 68.1%. The natural beneficiary of the pressure on the euro remains the dollar, and as a result, gold could struggle to escape its range.
Despite the stronger dollar, physical gold demand remains strong — especially on price dips. Although gold remains range bound, we expect the next move to be up.
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Palladium is testing $460 and platinum $1,630. The US platinum ETF has now 156K of platinum stock. Despite the large increase in price, platinum volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchanger remains steady, this is adding support on the downside. We would buy both metals on the dips.
Silver jump to $18.60 this morning. Over the past few days, we saw good physical demand for the metal which, as for gold, is supporting the price on the downside. Silver support is at $18.30 and $18.20, resistance is at $18.60 and $18.80.