RTRS: METALS-Copper rallies on strong China growth data
* China Q4 2009 GDP up 10.7 pct on year, Dec CPI up 1.9 pct
* China Dec copper output 418,000 T, slightly lower on
month
* China Dec trade breakdown to be released after market
(Updates prices; recasts; adds comment)
By Rujun Shen and Jacqueline Wong
SHANGHAI, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Copper rallied 1.5 percent on
Thursday, after data showed China's economic growth accelerated
in the last quarter of the year, offsetting worries over
further tightening of China's monetary policy.
China's economy finished 2009 with a flourish, as a 10.7
percent annual increase in fourth-quarter GDP took full-year
growth to 8.7 percent, easily surpassing Beijing's 8 percent
target. [ID:nTOE60K011]
"Obviously the month-on-month growth momentum is very
strong," said Xing Ziqiang, an economist at CICC in Beijing.
"So I think the chances for us to see an interest rate rise in
the first quarter are increasing."
An acceleration in consumer inflation to 1.9 percent in the
12 months to December from November's 0.6 percent figure is
likely to reinforce worries about possible economic overheating
on the back of a renewed surge in bank lending.
"I think it's bad news for base metals, and copper in
particular. Fixed asset investment is lower, and inflation
higher, which basically means demand is down and inflation is
up," said a trader based in Singapore.
"Rate hiking and currency appreciation have to come
quicker."
In another gesture towards tightening liquidity, China's
central bank raised the yield again on its three-month bills in
its regular open market operations on Thursday. [ID:nBJD003433]
But the nervousness over tightening gradually eased during
the day, as Shanghai copper regained some ground and London
copper moved higher.
"Investors are less worried now, as the data were not
wildly out of expectations. The panic sentiment in the market
has ebbed, especially after yesterday's fall," said Liu Xu, an
analyst at China International Futures.
On Wednesday official media and sources said some banks had
been told to restrict lending for the rest of January after a
burst of credit in early 2010, triggering fears on tighter
monetary policy.
Shanghai's benchmark third-month futures contract was
almost unchanged at 60,950 yuan a tonne, after touching an
intra-day of 58,380 yuan a tonne.
The most-active contract for May delivery SCFK0 shed 30
yuan to 60,970 yuan.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange CMCU3
gained 1.5 percent to $7,488 a tonne by 0701 GMT, reversing
from losses in the previous session.
Analysts expected copper prices to move sideways in the
short term, as investors are worried about more tightening
moves from China, which could drain liquidity in the market and
depress investment buying.
China's production of refined copper fell 0.6 percent in
December from November's record, due to repairs at top producer
Jiangxi Copper (600362.SS: Quote, Profile, Research) (0358.HK: Quote, Profile, Research). Production of primary
aluminium rose 1 percent on the month in December and hit a
record for the third straight month.[ID:nTOE60K03D]
The euro hit a five-month low on the dollar on Thursday, as
its sell-off on chart triggers and fiscal worries extended,
while the Australian dollar held its ground as Chinese growth
quickened but the risk of tighter policy also grew. [USD/]
China has delayed the release of detailed December trade
data to after the market closes on Thursday. [ID:nTOE60K00M]
Base metals prices at 0701 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2009 YTD pct
chg
LME Cu 7488.00 113.00 +1.53 7375.00
1.53
SHFE Cu* 60950.00 -50.00 -0.08 59900.00
1.75
LME Alum 2278.00 11.00 +0.49 2230.00
2.15
SHFE Alum* 17465.00 55.00 +0.32 17160.00
1.78
COMEX Cu** 334.60 -9.10 -2.65 332.75
0.56
LME Zinc 2492.00 48.00 +1.96 2560.00
-2.66
SHFE Zinc 20730.00 -65.00 -0.31 21195.00
-2.19
LME Nickel 19100.00 295.00 +1.57 18525.00
3.10
LME Lead 2341.00 46.00 +2.00 2432.00
-3.74
LME Tin 18150.00 375.00 +2.11 16950.00
7.08
LME/Shanghai arb^ -1146
Dollar/yuan 6.8262 \ 6.8272
** 1st contract month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contact month for SHFE aluminium, copper and zinc
^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE
third month
(Editing by Clarence Fernandez)