CT: Commodity growth will be restricted for next two years, says World Bank
By Nicholas Paler
The impact of the financial crisis will hold back commodity price growth in 2010 and 2011 as economies take time to rebuild, the World Bank has predicted.
In its latest report on the state of world's financial system, the bank said there were many uncertainties about the strength of any recovery seen in 2010 and it expects commodity prices to be near-stagnant as a result of the low growth environment.
It predicted oil prices would remain broadly stable throughout 2010, at around $76 a barrel - the price which brent crude was trading at today. Other commodities would only rise by around 3% per year during the next two years.
The World Bank's chief economist and senior vice president covering development economies, Justin Lin, said: 'We cannot expect an overnight recovery from this deep and painful crisis, because it will take many years for economies and jobs to be rebuilt.'
The Bank is forecasting global GDP growth of 2.7% this year, followed by 3.2% in 2011.
The report, which focuses specifically on the impact of the crisis on developing economies, also warned that businesses in developing countries would struggle to borrow capital, lowering growth in developing nations.
Andrew Burns, lead author of the report, said: 'As international financial conditions tighten, firms in developing countries will face higher borrowing costs, lower levels of credit, and reduced international capital flows.
'As a result, over the next five to seven years, trend growth rates in developing countries may be 0.2% to 0.7% lower than they would have been had finance remained as abundant and inexpensive as in the boom period,' he said.