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BLBG: Copper May Rise in London on Speculation About Chinese Demand
 
By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Copper may rise in London on speculation that demand from China, the world’s biggest consumer, will maintain its pace after the country’s economy expanded at the fastest rate since 2007.

Gross domestic product increased 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter from a year before, a statistics bureau report showed in Beijing today. That beat the median forecast of 10.5 percent in a Bloomberg News survey. Record Chinese imports of copper in 2009’s first half helped prices to more than double last year.

“Things still look pretty positive” in China, said David Thurtell, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in London. Inbound shipments of copper into the country increased for a second month in December, customs office figures showed on Jan. 10.

Copper for three-month delivery added $20, or 0.3 percent, to $7,395 a metric ton at 10 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange. The contract pared a climb of as much as 1.7 percent. Copper for March delivery climbed 0.1 percent to $3.3595 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit.

A stronger dollar limited price gains, Thurtell said. The U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s strength, advanced as much as 0.5 percent. Gains by the dollar make metals priced in the currency more expensive for holders of other monies and erode their appeal as an alternative investment.

Larger Inventories

Copper stockpiles monitored by the LME climbed 1.5 percent to 534,650 tons, according to daily exchange data. Including those tracked by bourses in Shanghai and New York, they totaled 727,189 tons, a six-year high.

Futures open interest in copper at LME brokerages and their clients dropped to 392,367 contracts as of Jan. 19, the lowest since July 30, according to LME data. Lower open interest, or outstanding contracts, means some positions have been liquidated.

Chinese copper output gained 9.6 percent to 4.25 million tons in 2009, the nation’s statistics bureau said today. Greater domestic production may result in a 40 percent drop in imports of refined metal into the Asian nation this year, according to Kevin Norrish, an analyst at Barclays Capital.

Norrish forecast an increase in inbound shipments of copper concentrates and scrap into China this year in a report yesterday. That will be “supportive” for international copper prices, he said.

OZ Minerals

Production also rose at OZ Minerals Ltd.’s Prominent Hill mine in Australia. Full-year output was 96,310 tons, above target, the company said today. It predicted annual production for the years 2010 to 2012 at between 100,000 tons and 110,000 tons of copper.

The May copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed 1.2 percent lower at 60,790 yuan a ton ($8,904). Chinese prices usually include a 17 percent value-added tax and import fee.

Among other LME metals for three-month delivery, aluminum lost 0.3 percent to $2,260 a ton and tin gained 0.4 percent to $17,850 a ton. Lead dropped 0.3 percent to $2,289 a ton, zinc increased 0.5 percent to $2,456 a ton and nickel slipped 0.1 percent to $18,781 a ton.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in London at cchanjaroen@bloomberg.net.

Source