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BLBG: Oil Rises for the First Day in Four on Global Recovery Optimism
 
By Yee Kai Pin

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for the first time in four days as traders took the view that futures are attractive to buy after almost three weeks of declines, betting the global economic recovery remains on track.

Oil briefly traded above $74 a barrel in New York after Japan, Asia’s biggest economy, posted an increase in industrial production in December and a drop in unemployment. Initial jobless claims in the U.S., the largest energy consumer, slipped to 470,000 in the week ended Jan. 23, the first decrease in four weeks, Labor Department data showed yesterday.

“The data that we’re getting from both the U.S. and global level is telling us that there is a gradual move toward better fundamentals,” said Yingxi Yu, a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in Singapore. “It’s very slow but it’s definitely building the base for a sustained upward shift.”

Crude oil for March delivery rose as much as 39 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $74.03 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract was at $73.77 at 12:19 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, it slipped 3 cents to $73.64, the lowest settlement since Dec. 21.

Oil is recovering after losing almost 11 percent in the past three weeks amid concern over the slow pace of the global economic recovery. Prices have traded below the 2009 close of $79.36 a barrel since Jan. 14, drawing buyers who take a longer- term view of supply and demand, according to Yu.

“In terms of fundamentals, we still very much think that the next big move out of the range is likely to be on the upside,” she said. “$70 is looked at by the market as a barely sustainable minimum. If prices fall below that, there is no guarantee that there would be enough investment in capacity for future supply.”

China Demand

Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the world’s largest crude oil producer, has started exporting more to China than to the U.S. The Asian country, the second-largest energy consumer, has been growing the fastest among major economies.

“Our eyes are focused on China,” Khalid al-Falih, chief executive officer of the state-owned company known as Saudi Aramco, said yesterday in an interview in Davos, Switzerland.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase crude shipments by 1.5 percent in the four weeks to Feb. 13 on continuing demand from Asia, according to tanker- tracker Oil Movements.

OPEC, a 12-member group that pumps about 40 percent of the world’s oil, will ship 23.21 million barrels a day in the month ending Feb. 13, compared with 22.87 million a day in the four weeks to Jan. 16, the Halifax, England-based consultant said yesterday.

Brent crude oil for March settlement rose as much as 33 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $72.46 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract was at $72.25 at 12:17 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, it slipped 11 cents to $72.13, the lowest settlement since Dec. 15.

To contact the reporter on this story: Yee Kai Pin in Singapore at kyee13@bloomberg.net

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