BLBG: Dollar to Reach Six-Month High Versus Franc: Technical Analysis
By Yasuhiko Seki and Kazumi Miura
Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. dollar is poised to gain toward a six-month high against the Swiss franc, Ueda Harlow Ltd. said, citing trading patterns.
The greenback breached a 200-day moving average line against the franc, signaling the U.S. currency’s advance may accelerate in the near term, Toshiya Yamauchi, manager of foreign-exchange margin trading at Ueda Harlow in Tokyo, said in an interview with Bloomberg News. The dollar may climb to 1.08 francs before reaching the 50 percent retracement level of 1.09 on the Fibonacci chart, Yamauchi said.
“The dollar pierced through its heavy resistance of 1.05 francs and the top line of the cloud on ichimoku charts, signaling further gains,” Yamauchi said.
The U.S. dollar traded at 1.0527 francs as of 8:01 a.m. in Tokyo from 1.0522 francs yesterday in New York. The greenback’s 200-day moving average was 1.0546 franc yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The dollar last traded above 1.08 Swiss francs in September and was higher than 1.09 francs in July.
An ichimoku chart analyzes the midpoints of historic highs and lows. The conversion line is the same calculation over the past nine trading days. The baseline is the sum of the highest high and the lowest low over the past 26 trading days.
Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that securities tend to rise or fall by specific percentages after reaching a new high or low. A break through one level indicates a currency may move to the next line. A failure to break through suggests a trend may be ending.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
To contact the reporters on this story: Yasuhiko Seki in Tokyo at Yseki5@bloomberg.net; Kazumi Miura in Tokyo at Kmiura1@bloomberg.net