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BLBG: Soybeans, Corn Drop, Extend Biggest Monthly Decline Since June
 
By Luzi Ann Javier

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans and corn fell, extending their biggest monthly loss since June, as the dollar advanced, making U.S. crops less attractive to importers and investors.

Soybeans for March delivery fell as much as 0.6 percent to $908.25, the lowest price for the most-active contract since Oct. 6. The contract, which slid 13 percent in January, was at $9.095 a bushel in Chicago at 2:07 p.m. Singapore time. Corn lost as much as 0.3 percent to $3.555 after a 14 percent January slump.

Twenty-six of 40 traders and analysts surveyed on Jan. 29 from Tokyo to Chicago said soybeans will decline, and 25 of 39 said corn will fall this year, as total world inventories of the three crops and rice grows this year to the highest since 2002.

“Crop production is going to be outstanding this year, and oil markets have come off and the dollar has strengthened,” Peter McGuire, managing director at CWA Global Markets Pty, said from Sydney today. “All of those” factors are pushing soybean and corn prices lower, he said.

Global soybean output in the year that began Oct. 1 will be a record 253.4 million metric tons, up from 250.3 million tons forecast a month ago and 210.9 million tons produced last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Jan. 12.

The dollar traded near a seven-month high against the euro on signs the world’s largest economy is gaining momentum. Crude oil for March delivery fell as much as 0.6 percent to $72.49 a barrel in New York after analysts forecast oil prices may extend their decline this week as supplies climb and demand lags behind year-earlier levels.

March-delivery corn shed 0.2 percent to $3.5575 a bushel in after-hours trading on the Chicago Board of Trade at 1:45 p.m. Singapore time, reversing an earlier 0.5 percent advance.

Grains Slide

Grain prices have fallen after the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised on Jan. 12 its estimate on global corn output to a record 796.5 million tons from a month earlier, while the wheat-production forecast was increased to 676.1 million tons from 673.9 million a month earlier.

Wheat for March delivery added as much as 0.8 percent to $4.7775 a bushel before trading little changed at $4.7425.

U.S. farmers may reduce acreage for wheat and increase planting of corn and soybeans in 2010, said Mike Murphy, an analyst at industry researcher CattleFax on Jan. 29. The U.S. is the world’s biggest exporter of the three crops.

Wheat seeding in the U.S. may decline by 3.6 million acres to 55.5 million acres and farmers may plant 88.5 million acres of corn, about 2 million more than in 2009, Murphy said at a conference in San Antonio. About 79 million acres may be planted with soybeans, or 1.5 percent more than last year, Murphy said.

Shorts Rally

Speculative short positions, or bets wheat futures prices will fall, outnumbered long positions by 48,827 contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade in the week ended Jan. 26, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said in its Commitments of Traders report last week. Net-short positions rose by 12,985 contracts, or 36 percent, from a week earlier.

December-delivery wheat may rise to $6 a bushel in the second half of the year, as investors cover their short positions, Rabobank said in a report last week. December- delivery wheat added 0.2 percent to $5.4275 a bushel at 12:49 p.m. Singapore time.

“Given the considerable net-short position currently held by non-commercial participants in the Chicago wheat contract, there is a risk of a short-covering rally in prices, as unfolded with the price spike in May 2009,” the bank said last week.

To contact the reporter on this story: Luzi Ann Javier in Singapore at ljavier@bloomberg.net

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