RTRS: METALS-Copper falls to 2-1/2 mth low on China worries
* China macro data unsettles industrial metals investors
* Many metal stocks rising, locked into finance deals
* Sudbury nickel mine talks watched
(Recasts, adds comments/details, changes dateline pvs SINGAPORE)
By Michael Taylor
LONDON, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Copper fell to a two-and-a-half
month low on Monday, as strong economic data heightened investor
concerns that China, the world's top metals consumer, may
further tighten monetary policy.
By 1051 GMT, copper for three month delivery MCU3 on the
London Metal Exchange fell to $6,680 a tonne from $6,745 at the
curb on Friday, according to the LME. It earlier touched a
session low at $6,600, a level not seen since Nov. 16 and was on
track for a fifth day of declines, its longest losing streak
since August 2009.
Tin prices CMSN3 fell more than 6 percent to its lowest
since Dec 24 2009, chasing a broad sell-off in metals last week,
and was set for its biggest one-day fall since early July 2009.
[ID:nSGE610019]
"It's just a change in sentiment really," said Alex Heath,
head of base metals and RBC Capital Markets. "I don't think
anybody was under any misapprehension that metals had got ahead
of themselves in terms of actual demand and growth ... Trees do
not grow to heaven.
"You can't have this amount of money flooding around the
system without (China) having some kind of tweaking processes
going on," he added. "You are still going to have huge growth
this year ... it's healthy."
China's economy made a strong start to the year, according
to a pair of business surveys released on Monday that also
underlined the mounting challenge policymakers face to curb
inflation.
An index based on an official survey of purchasing managers
last month eased from a 20-month high in December but remained
firmly in expansionary territory, while an index derived from a
companion poll by HSBC scaled an all-time high. [ID:nTOE61003S]
That comes on the heels of 5.7 percent expansion in the U.S.
economy in the fourth quarter, the quickest pace in more than
six years, the Commerce Department said. [ID:nN28120005]
But some analysts say Chinese concerns are overblown.
"With the risks in China still tilted towards inflation and
stronger-than-expected growth, despite the shift towards less
accommodative policy, the problem in China remains too much
demand not too little," Goldman Sachs said in a note.
"Given that we have already assumed slowing metals demand
growth for China in 2010, this suggests that the risks to
Chinese metals demand and our forecasts are likely skewed to the
upside rather than to the downside in coming months."
Copper fell 8.5 percent last month, in part due to rises in
LME inventories, which indicate that demand outside China
remains weak. Copper prices rose 140 percent last year.
The latest data showed stocks rose 2,475 tonnes to total
543,525 -- their highest since late February 2009.
Among other base metals, aluminium MAL3 traded at
two-month lows at $2,068 versus $2,080 at the curb on Friday.
LME stocks in the metal, used in transport and packaging, fell
625 tonnes but remained near record levels above 4.6 million
tonnes.
Steel making ingredient nickel MNI3 traded at $18,375 from
$18,500 at the curb on Friday, while battery material lead
MPB3 was at $2,004.50 from $2,020. Lead earlier touched a low
of $1,960, a level not seen since August.
Recent rises in cancelled warrants -- material earmarked for
delivery -- are under close scrutiny from metals investors for
signs of improving demand.
On Friday, cancelled warrants for lead were 15,850 tonnes,
compared with 11,700 on Jan. 28 and 75 tonnes on Dec 17. LME
lead stocks rose 200 tonnes to hit 157,500 tonnes, a level not
seen since September 2003.
Contract talks between Xstrata (XTA.L) and workers at its
main nickel operations in Sudbury, Ontario were also being
watched by many traders. See [ID:nLDE6100UA]
Zinc MZN3 traded at $2,090.25 a tonne from $2,110 at the
curb on Friday, and tin MSN3 was at $16,300 from $17,200. Zinc
earlier hit a three and a half month low at $2,074.
RBC's Heath said because tin is not traded as much by funds
compared to other LME metals, it tends to be more volatile.
"It doesn't take too much to do that in tin," he added.
Metal Prices at 1059 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2009 Ytd Pct
move
COMEX Cu 303.05 -1.55 -0.51 332.75 -8.93
LME Alum 2062.00 -18.00 -0.87 2230.00 -7.53
LME Cu 6668.00 -77.50 -1.15 7375.00 -9.59
LME Lead 1995.00 -25.00 -1.24 2432.00 -17.97
LME Nickel 18200.00 -300.00 -1.62 18525.00 -1.75
LME Tin 16250.00 -950.00 -5.52 16950.00 -4.13
LME Zinc 2083.00 -27.00 -1.28 2560.00 -18.63
SHFE Alu 16190.00 150.00 +0.94 17160.00 -5.65
SHFE Cu* 54380.00 -1050.00 -1.89 59900.00 -9.22
SHFE Zin 17240.00 -155.00 -0.89 21195.00 -18.66
** 1st contract month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07