BLBG: Soybean Futures Slide, Extend Biggest Monthly Drop Since June
By Luzi Ann Javier
Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans fell, extending the biggest monthly loss since June as the dollar climbed against the euro, making U.S. crops less attractive to importers and investors.
Soybeans for March delivery fell as much as 0.6 percent to $9.0825 a bushel in electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade, the lowest for the most-active contract since Oct. 6, and traded at $9.1225 at 11:33 a.m. Paris time. The contract slid 13 percent in January.
Twenty-six of 40 traders and analysts surveyed on Jan. 29 from Tokyo to Chicago said soybeans will decline this year, and 25 of 39 said corn will fall, as total world inventories of cereals climb to the highest since 2002.
“Crop production is going to be outstanding this year, and oil markets have come off and the dollar has strengthened,” Peter McGuire, managing director at CWA Global Markets Pty, said from Sydney today. “All of those” factors are pushing soybean and corn prices lower, he said.
Corn slipped as much as 0.3 percent to $3.555 a bushel after a 14 percent January slump, and recently was at $3.5625 a bushel.
Global soybean output in the year that began Oct. 1 will be a record 253.4 million metric tons, up from 250.3 million tons forecast a month earlier and 210.9 million tons produced last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Jan. 12.
The dollar climbed against the euro for the first time in five days on signs the U.S. economy is gaining momentum. Crude oil for March delivery fell as much as 0.6 percent to $72.49 a barrel in New York after analysts forecast oil prices may extend their decline this week as supplies climb and demand lags behind year-earlier levels.
“The dollar has resumed its upward trend against the euro, resulting in some pressure on the U.S. markets,” French farm adviser Agritel said in a market comment.
Grains Slide
Grain prices have fallen after the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised on Jan. 12 its estimate on global corn output to a record 796.5 million tons from a month earlier, while the wheat-production forecast was increased to 676.1 million tons from 673.9 million a month earlier.
Wheat for March delivery added 0.4 percent to $4.77 a bushel at 11:44 a.m. Paris time. Milling wheat for March delivery traded on Liffe in Paris slipped 0.2 percent to 125.25 euros a metric ton ($174.07).
U.S. farmers may reduce acreage for wheat and increase planting of corn and soybeans in 2010, said Mike Murphy, an analyst at industry researcher CattleFax on Jan. 29. The U.S. is the world’s biggest exporter of the three crops.
Wheat seeding in the U.S. may decline by 3.6 million acres to 55.5 million acres and farmers may plant 88.5 million acres of corn, about 2 million more than in 2009, Murphy said at a conference in San Antonio. About 79 million acres may be planted with soybeans, or 1.5 percent more than last year, Murphy said.
Shorts Rally
Speculative short positions, or bets wheat futures prices will fall, outnumbered long positions by 48,827 contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade in the week ended Jan. 26, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said in its Commitments of Traders report last week. Net-short positions rose by 12,985 contracts, or 36 percent, from a week earlier.
December-delivery wheat may rise to $6 a bushel in the second half of the year, as investors cover their short positions, Rabobank said in a report last week. December- delivery wheat added 0.2 percent to $5.4275 a bushel at 12:49 p.m. Singapore time.
“Given the considerable net-short position currently held by non-commercial participants in the Chicago wheat contract, there is a risk of a short-covering rally in prices, as unfolded with the price spike in May 2009,” the bank said last week.
To contact the reporter on this story: Luzi Ann Javier in Singapore at ljavier@bloomberg.net.