By Carlos Torres Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The number of contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes was probably little changed in December after a record plunge a month earlier, indicating a renewed tax credit will take time to revive sales, economists said before a report today. The index of signed purchase agreements, or pending home sales, rose 1 percent after decreasing 16 percent in November, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 35 economists. The drop was the largest in data back to 2001. Demand jumped last year as first-time buyers rushed to qualify for an $8,000 government incentive due to expire Nov. 30. The subsequent renewal and expansion of the initiative may help underpin sales, cushioning the damage from mounting foreclosures and a possible increase in mortgage rates as Federal Reserve policy makers withdraw from the market. “Thanks in part to generous government support, home sales have bottomed, housing inventories are falling and prices are on their way to recovering,” said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. “Still, there are enormous challenges to keep housing from fully recovering in 2010.” The National Association of Realtors report is due at 10 a.m. Washington time. Survey estimates range from a drop of 3.2 percent to a 6 percent increase. Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator because they track contract signings. The Realtors’ existing- home sales report tallies closings, which typically occur a month or two later. The group started publishing the pending sales index in March 2005, and data go back to January 2001. Record Decrease Sales of previously owned houses dropped 17 percent in December, almost matching the record decrease in pending purchases the prior month, the agents’ group reported last week. President Barack Obama and Congress extended the first-time buyer credit in early November to cover deals signed by April 30 and closed by June 30 and expanded it to include some current homeowners. Even so, some economists say the original measure pulled sales forward, restraining demand for a few months. Another provision in the legislation allowed builders to use losses incurred in 2008 and 2009 to recoup taxes on profits going back as many as five years, three more years than usual. Lennar Corp., KB Home and Ryland Group Inc. are among the construction companies that have reported quarterly profits because of the tax refunds. The government initiative may help Lennar, the nation’s third-largest homebuilder by revenue, expand and hire, according to its chief executive officer. More Hiring “We can start adding communities and frankly adding jobs, which I think was the import of exactly that legislation,” Stuart A. Miller, head of the Miami-based company said after announcing quarterly results on Jan. 7. Homebuilder shares are outperforming the broader stock market so far this year as investors believe the tax benefit may buy the companies enough time to turn a profit later this year as sales improve. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Homebuilder Index climbed 5.5 percent since Dec. 31 compared with a 2.3 percent decline for the S&P 500. Fed policy makers last week confirmed their program to purchase mortgage-backed securities, which was aimed at keeping borrowing costs low, will expire by March 31 as scheduled. The plan helped push the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage down to 4.71 percent in early December, the lowest level since Freddie Mac started keeping weekly records in 1972. The rate hovered around 5 percent in the last two weeks of January. Industry Concerns Joblessness and foreclosures are other concerns. Unemployment is forecast to average 10 percent this year, the highest level in seven decades, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed this month. A record 3 million U.S. homes will be repossessed by lenders this year, RealtyTrac Inc. forecast on Jan. 14. That is up from 2.82 million in 2009, the most since the company began compiling data in 2005. The drop in prices associated with foreclosures represents a double-edged sword for the industry. Decreasing values bring more properties within reach of buyers, while also preventing current owners from trading up. The agents’ group’s affordability index was at 163.8 in December, compared with a record high 178.8 reached in April. A reading of 100 means a family earning the median income can afford the median-priced home at the current mortgage rate.

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