BLBG: Indian Wheat Crop May Top Record, Farm Secretary Says (Update1)
By Pratik Parija
Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The wheat crop in India, the world’s second-biggest grower, may exceed last year’s record on increased plantings, said Farm Secretary T. Nanda Kumar.
Production may be “marginally higher than” the 80.58 million tons gathered last year, Nanda Kumar, who is responsible for formulating agriculture policy, said in an interview.
A record crop for a second year may help Prime Minister Manmohan Singh cool food price increases that are the highest in a decade after a drought damaged harvests of rice, oilseeds and sugar cane. Rising food costs represented 80 percent of inflation in December, when wholesale prices rose an annual 7.3 percent, the fastest pace since November 2008.
“Area is up, and productivity parameters are the same as last year so logically it should be higher,” Nanda Kumar said in New Delhi. “It will definitely be the same as last year.”
Should wheat production at least equal last year’s total, which is “a good crop and is much more than we can consume, I suppose we will end up with surpluses,” he said. The crop, planted from October and harvested from February, represents 70 percent of the country’s winter-sown grains.
The estimate compares with a forecast of 82 million tons from S.S. Singh, head of the state-owned Directorate of Wheat Research on Feb. 5. Higher wheat output may encourage flour mills in the southern states to pare purchases from Australia.
Less Buying
“Good quality wheat will be available domestically at a reasonable price because of the optimistic view on the crop,” M.K. Dattaraj, former president of the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India, said by phone from Bangalore Feb. 5. “I am holding back my import plans.”
Mills seeking cheaper supplies from overseas may buy 200,000 tons of Australian wheat, down from an earlier estimate of 300,000 tons, Dattaraj said then. The landed price of Australian prime wheat is 15 rupees a kilogram at southern ports, compared with about 16 rupees for the locally grown equivalent, he said. The price dropped from as high as 19 rupees in November and may decline further, he said.
The farm ministry may announce output estimates for wheat and winter-sown crops in two to three days, Nanda Kumar said. Farmers planted wheat across 27.76 million hectares as of Feb. 4, up from 27.59 million a year earlier, the farm ministry said.
Wheat for March delivery gained as much as 0.4 percent to $4.86 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade today after advancing 2.3 percent yesterday.
To contact the reporter on this story: Pratik Parija in New Delhi at pparija@bloomberg.net