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BLBG: Euro Falls as Greek, Dubai Debt Concern Boost Dollar Demand
 
By Anchalee Worrachate and Yasuhiko Seki

Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The euro declined for a fourth day against the dollar as debt problems in Greece and Dubai spurred speculation the global economic recovery will falter.

The euro fell toward a nine-month low versus the dollar before a meeting of European finance ministers today that may provide details of a bailout for Greece. The greenback rose versus 15 of its 16 most-active counterparts as Zawya Dow Jones yesterday said Dubai World, the state-owned company seeking to restructure $22 billion of debt, may offer creditors 60 cents on the dollar after seven years. Currencies affected by commodity prices, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars, rose on speculation China’s economy may expand at a faster pace even as officials cool lending to restrain inflation.

“Greece is between a rock and a hard place, and that hurts the euro,” said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. in London. “Those negative headlines about Greece and Dubai are generally supporting the dollar.”

The euro fell to $1.3596 as of 9:10 a.m. in London from $1.3632 in New York on Feb. 12, when it reached $1.3532, the weakest level since May 19. The common currency weakened to 122.48 yen from 122.62. The dollar traded at 90.06 yen from 89.96 yen on Feb. 12.

European finance ministers will meet in Brussels under pressure from investors to spell out concrete measures to rescue Greece. The European Central Bank is seeking tougher steps than most European Union finance ministers for Greece’s deficit cuts, the Handelsblatt newspaper reported yesterday, citing a draft EU document listing possible measures.

‘Hoping for Details’

At an EU meeting last week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet agreed on a plan that called for closer monitoring of the Greek economy.

“Markets are once again hoping for concrete details about a possible bailout of Greece,” Ulrich Leuchtmann, the head of currency strategy at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, wrote in an e- e-mailed note today. “We do not expect a clarification of how Greece is going to be rescued in an emergency. Uncertainty about this issue is therefore likely to continue putting pressure on the euro this week.”

Dubai and Dubai World have not made an offer to creditors on the holding company’s debt restructuring, a spokeswoman for the emirate’s Department of Finance said yesterday, the same day U.K. Business Secretary Peter Mandelson said time is running out to resolve the issue.

The dollar approached its strongest level against the yen in more than one week before a report tomorrow that economists said will show an increase in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index. The manufacturing figure climbed to 18.0 in February from 15.92 in the previous month, according to the median estimate of 43 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

China’s Growth

The Australian dollar gained against 14 of 16 major currencies monitored by Bloomberg. It appreciated to 1.5315 per euro from 1.5356 on Feb. 12. It was little changed against the dollar at 88.77 cents.

Economic growth in China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, may expand at a faster pace in 2010 even as officials cool lending to restrain price growth and avert bubbles, economists said. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. maintained its forecast for 11.4 percent growth after the Chinese central bank raised reserve requirements for lenders on Feb. 12. That compares with an 8.7 percent expansion last year.

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch forecasts 10.1 percent growth, unchanged from before the reserve-ratio announcement that takes effect Feb. 25.

Fed Rates

“The Chinese economy is in good shape, and exports will be the biggest swing factor this year,” said Lu Ting, a Hong Kong- based economist for Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. “Outside of China, people underestimate the government’s ability to manage the economy and the stimulus exit.”

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week the central bank may raise the discount rate “before long” as economic stimulus measures are unwound.

Futures trading in Chicago last week showed a 49 percent chance that the Fed will raise its target lending rate by at least a quarter-percentage point by its September meeting, up from 43 percent a week ago.

The yen also fell after a Cabinet Office report today showed Japan’s gross domestic product deflator dropped 3 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. The deflator is used to calculate economic growth adjusted for price changes. Japan’s economy expanded at an annual pace of 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter.

“While the Fed’s exit strategy is drawing close attention, the Bank of Japan and the ECB are nowhere near an exit,” said Masashi Nakamura, a Tokyo-based economist at Mizuho Research Institute Ltd. “This outlook will give the dollar some advantage over the yen and the euro.”

The Bank of Japan will start a two-day policy meeting on Feb. 17. The central bank is forecast to keep its benchmark interest rate at 0.1 percent through 2010, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.



To contact the reporter on this story:
Anchalee Worrachate in London at
aworrachate@bloomberg.net;
Yasuhiko Seki in Tokyo at
yseki5@bloomberg.net


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