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FX: US Dollar Mixed, Euro Lower Ahead of ECB Meeting
 
SINGAPORE, March 4 (MNI) - The U.S. dollar continued to trade with a mixed tone in late Asian trade Thursday, slipping to session lows against the yen but keeping a firm foothold versus the euro ahead of key events, including a European Central Bank meeting later.

New plans announced by Greece to tackle its budget deficit have helped risk sentiment recover a bit and kept the euro from falling further, after it rebounded to $1.3736 last night.

"The market can assume that Greece has promised as much as it has to receive financial backing from the euro area and the immediate threat of contagion is much reduced," noted RBS strategist Greg Gibbs. "This has helped lift European equities and global risk appetite this week."

Also Tuesday's lows marked the third time that euro-dollar bottomed in the $1.3430/50 zone in recent weeks.

The euro rally seen subsequently has been met with skepticism, with most market players still bearish and targeting a test of $1.3000 in coming weeks.

"The question now for the euro and the market is can Greece deliver and what will be the drag of growth in Greece and other sovereigns that will see a greater need for austerity?" RBS's Gibbs added.

Some traders said positions were reduced ahead of event risk this week, stemming from Thursday's Bank of England and ECB meetings and Friday's release of U.S. non-farm payrolls.

The BOE and ECB are expected to keep rates on hold and to offer insight into future monetary policy. In the case of the ECB, this may include the announcement of minor changes in its liquidity framework.

In the forex market this morning, euro-dollar started the session in a mildly choppy manner, as it swung between $1.3682 and a morning high of $1.3713.

But late morning action pushed the pair back down through $1.3700 for a $1.3689 low as offers at $1.3730/30 capped the rise, while tech charts also pointed to resistance in that area, at $1.3789/$1.3800, marking the Feb 17 high, and Bollinger band limit, respectively.

"By the end of the week the Greek crisis might have eased meeting a market which has traded the euro short via trading accounts," BNP Paribas strategists said in a daily note.

Dollar-yen meanwhile was trapped within a narrow trading range of Y88.40 and Y88.65 in subdued market action through most of the morning in Asia.

Dealers said the pair was hiked up early in the day amid some speculation of demand from "semi-official Japanese accounts," but these faded soon after the Tokyo fix, and profit-taking then took hold ahead of the events on Thursday and Friday.

In late Asian trade, dollar-yen slipped to Y88.16 on late selling in yen crosses, particularly euro-yen as the euro-zone currency encountered selling interest at the start of the European day. Euro-dollar meanwhile was at $1.3662, also lower from where it was at the U.S. close.

While the ECB and BOE meetings today would be closely monitored for clues on future policy action, the spotlight is still likely to remain on U.S. payrolls data on Friday.

Last night saw the release of the ADP employment report, showing job losses of 20,000 for February, which created confusion heading into Friday's non-farm payroll release, with the ADP data purportedly not "snow-affected" in contrast to the BLS data.

"Perhaps not this month, but a faster than expected recovery in US payrolls could be a factor that establishes the U.S. dollar as the strongest currency among the G4," RBS's Gibb said.

Tonight's weekly jobless claims will be closely eyed for insight into the U.S. employment situation.

The median estimate in a Market News International survey of economists looks for claims of 475,000 for the week ending February 27. Estimates range from 460,000 to 490,000.

The median estimate for Friday's non-farm payroll report looks for payrolls to fall by 50,000. Estimates range from -150,000 to +30.000.

The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to increase by 0.1% to 9.8%. Estimates there range from 9.6% to 10.0%.

Source