BLBG: Australian Dollar Nears 7-Week High on Jobs, Confidence Reports
By Candice Zachariahs
March 9 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar traded near its strongest in almost seven weeks as job vacancies jumped by the most in more than a decade, prompting speculation the central bank will raise interest rates next month.
New Zealand’s dollar fell against 15 of the 16 most-traded currencies after a government report showed the nation’s consumer purchases on debit, credit and store cards fell for the first time in eight months. The so-called Aussie found buyers before a report this week that economists said will show employers added positions in February for a sixth month.
“We’ve seen a complete reversal of the fall in January job advertisements and the trend is definitely continuing up,” said Julie Toth, a senior economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. A strong jobs report “may help sway the central bank to moving sooner rather than later,” which would support Australia’s dollar, she said.
Australia’s currency traded at 90.93 U.S. cents as of 4:19 p.m. in Sydney from 90.92 cents in New York yesterday, when it touched 91.34 cents, the most since Jan. 21. The currency bought 81.86 yen from 82.11 yen.
New Zealand’s dollar fell 0.3 percent to 69.85 U.S. cents from yesterday in New York when it reached 70.36, the strongest since Feb. 23. It dropped 0.7 percent to 62.87 yen.
Swaps traders are betting on a 33 percent chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will increase its benchmark rate when it meets April 6, according to a Credit Suisse AG index. That’s up from a 25 percent chance yesterday.
Employment, Yields
Australian jobs advertised in newspapers and on the Internet rose 19.1 percent from January, when they fell 8.1 percent, according to an Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. report released today. That was the biggest monthly gain since the index began including ads on the Web in 1999.
Australian employers added 15,000 positions in February, according to the median forecast of 25 economists in a Bloomberg News survey taken before the March 11 report.
The yield on two-year Australian government bonds rose three basis points to 4.74 percent, the most since Jan. 21. The yield on 10-year notes fell two basis point to 5.54 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price of the 4.5 percent security due April 2020 rose 0.17, or A$1.70 per A$1,000 face amount, to 92.04.
Initial Resistance
The Australian dollar is “benefitting” as “traders priced more tightening by the RBA over the next few years to reflect the easing in concerns over the global growth outlook,” said John Kyriakopoulos, head of currency strategy at National Australia Bank in Sydney. “Our bias is to see further gains in the Australian dollar this week.” The currency will face “initial resistance” at 91.35 cents, he said.
Benchmark interest rates are 4 percent in Australia and 2.5 percent in New Zealand, compared with 0.1 percent in Japan and as low as zero in the U.S., attracting investors to the South Pacific nations’ higher-yielding assets. The risk in such trades is that currency market moves will erase profits.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard may keep rates at a record low till September, said Wellington-based Khoon Goh, a senior economist at ANZ National Bank Ltd., to ensure the nation’s recovery is “self-sustaining.”
“All the ingredients for a strong recovery in consumer spending are missing,” he said. “There’s no real concrete signs the economy is kicking on.”
The value of transactions on electronic cards dropped 0.4 percent in February from January when it gained a revised 0.4 percent, Statistics New Zealand said today.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet on March 11.
New Zealand’s two-year swap rate, a fixed payment made to receive floating rates, was little changed at 4.15 percent.
To contact the reporter on this story: Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at czachariahs2@bloomberg.net