BLBG: Corn, Soybeans Drop on Speculation China to Raise Rates; Wheat Advances
Corn and soybeans declined on speculation that China may further tighten monetary policy to curb inflation, reducing demand for commodities.
Corn for March delivery lost as much as 0.9 percent to $5.6925 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade and was at $5.72 at 3:25 p.m. Singapore time. Soybeans for January delivery dropped as much as 0.8 percent to $12.8525 a bushel and last traded at $12.8875.
China’s statistics bureau brought forward the release of November economic data including inflation and retail sales to Dec. 11, heightening speculation the central bank will raise interest rates this weekend. Consumer prices gained 4.4 percent in October, the fastest pace in two years, because of higher food costs. The country is the world’s biggest soybean importer.
“Corn and soybeans were under downward pressure from speculation about China’s interest rate hike,” Toshimitsu Kawanabe, an analyst at Tokyo-based commodity broker Central Shoji Co., said today. Overall trade was thin before the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s global supply-and-demand report tomorrow, he said.
In China, some soybean crushers have halted production on plunging profits as the government’s price-control measures stalled sales of soybean oil and meal, the China National Grain & Oils Information Center said in an e-mailed report.
Delayed Shipments
Chinese soybean buyers have also delayed deliveries of some shipments originally scheduled for arrival in February to April as slowing sales of soybean meal forced them to trim production, researcher Grain.gov.cn said.
Demand for protein meal is falling as the country’s livestock inventory declines, the researcher wrote in an e- mailed daily report. Higher profits in the past two months prompted farmers to sell animals earlier than usual, it said.
China’s soybean arrivals may begin to fall from February, after averaging about 5 million metric tons in November to January, the researcher said. China’s commercial soybean inventory is about 6.5 million to 7 million tons now, it said.
The USDA may forecast tomorrow that world corn inventories will be 128.71 million tons on Sept. 30, less than 129.16 million tons estimated last month, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 17 analysts. Global soybean inventories may be 60.59 million tons on Sept. 30, compared with 61.41 million estimated in November.
World wheat inventories will be 171.3 million tons on May 31, less than 172.51 million tons projected by the USDA last month, according to the survey.
Wheat Gains
Wheat for March delivery rose as much as 0.7 percent to $7.895 a bushel in Chicago and last traded at $7.885. The price touched $8.11 on Dec. 7, the highest level since Aug. 6.
The U.S., the world’s largest wheat shipper, may not have the logistical capacity to meet rising global demand, after rains cut the quality of the harvest in Canada and Australia, the United Nations said.
As much as 8 million tons of Australia’s wheat harvest may be downgraded because of excessive rains and Canada’s output suffered from wet weather, pushing importers to seek alternative suppliers, said Abdolreza Abbassian, an economist at the UN Food & Agriculture Organization, in an interview, citing government estimates.
Dry weather in Russia may keep the nation out of the export market for another year, and it may rely on Kazakhstan and Ukraine to meet a domestic grain shortfall, he said.
“If that is the case, we may see wheat prices soar again,” Ker Chung Yang, an analyst at Phillip Futures Pte., said in an e-mail today.
Futures surged to the highest in almost two years in August after the worst drought in at least half a century in Russia prompted last year’s third-biggest wheat grower to ban exports of grains.
To contact the reporter on this story: Jae Hur in Tokyo at jhur1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net