PR: Commodity price inflation has arrived-Fullermoney
A glance back at the chart of the most indebted nations in the euro zone offers little comfort for those investors exposed to the debts of Spain, Portugal, Italy, Belgium and France. Dylan Grice, strategist at Société Générale recently quipped, "There is no such thing as toxic assets, only toxic prices". There is a price at which these assets become attractive. However, with French 5 year paper offering a nominal yield of 2.10%, that price is still not right. With French national debt approaching €1,300bn, only a euro zone politician could describe this return as risk-free.
Volatility in the bond market over the next few years is going to create massive gains and losses for speculative investors. For those charged with preserving their clients' wealth, things will be volatile enough, even without direct exposure to these toxic credits. The most sensible approach will surely be to diversify across multiple asset classes and currencies, in each case attempting to identify investments that offer value on a fundamental (that is, risk-adjusted) basis. The principle of avoiding capital loss, both incidental and catastrophic, must surely be paramount.
My view - Sensible comments and what about that "Volatility in the bond market over the next few years"?
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Additional commentary by Eoin Treacy
Email of the day (1) - on markets that will benefit from higher oil prices:
"In view of your recent comments on the catch up in energy prices, in general regional terms which stock markets do you think will benefit most? I have added exposure to Qatar, for example. More particularly, are we going to see a further advance by the Russian market (which on simple P/E metrics is lowly valued)?
"Even after 18 months I still tune in to your comments daily. Thank you both."
My comment - Thank you for these questions which I'm sure will be of interest to other subscribers. I remember when you joined the Collective and it feels like only the twinkling of an eye has passed. The markets offer the opportunity for lifelong learning and I hope you will be with us for years to come. Might I ask how you are getting exposure to the Qatari market? As far as I know while Qatar is an oil producer, it is more leveraged to natural gas and LNG.
Oil hit $90 this week and has pulled back slightly from that level over the last couple of days. Following such a swift rally to reach a new recovery high, a pause in this area is not unexpected. A sustained move below $80 would be required to delay potential for additional upside. On Monday, I profiled a number of companies that should benefit from higher oil prices and I believe it is an open question whether one would gain more access to the sector by buying a country fund, energy fund or by cherry picking among some of the more promising equities.
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Indian Equity Prices 'Stretched,' Says Goldman's Moe - This article by Shikhar Balwani and Anoop Agrawal for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here it is in full:
Indian stock valuations are "stretched" and better options may be found in Taiwan, Timothy Moe, chief Asia Pacific equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said by video link at a press event in Mumbai today.
"Valuations in India are on the elevated side right now," Moe said from Singapore. "Valuations will narrow down as U.S. and other developed economies in northern Asia catch up."
This year's 13 percent rally makes the Sensex the best performer among the world's 10 biggest stock markets. Foreign fund inflows have surged 75 percent this year, making the gauge's 18.7 times estimated earnings the most expensive in Asia and among the BRIC markets that also include Brazil, Russia and China.
India is the only market with significant negative earnings revisions over the past three months, according to a slide displayed during Moe's presentation.
Overseas investors purchased a net 769 million rupees ($17.2 million) of Indian shares on Dec. 6, taking this year's record inflows in equity to 1.34 trillion rupees, according to data on the website of the Securities and Exchange Board of India.
My view - Indian banks are currently engaged in competition to attract customers. They have been raising deposit rates while leaving interest rates unchanged which is squeezing margins. Banks are an important sector in any market and as liquidity providers their performance is often a bellwether for the wider market.
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Cocoa Falls on Speculation Ivory Coast's Shipments to Carry On - This article by Stephen Morris for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Cocoa fell from its highest price in more than three months in London on speculation exports from Ivory Coast, the world's biggest grower, will carry on amid political unrest following the disputed presidential election.
The election, intended to unite the West African country, has turned into a standoff, as incumbent Laurent Gbagbo and challenger Alassane Ouattara both claim victory. Cargill Inc., a cocoa shipper in the country, said this week the unrest is causing "challenges both in terms of delivery of beans and logistics on the ground."
"In the past when there has been conflict in Ivory Coast, the cocoa industry tends to make sure that shipments carry on," Gary Mead, an analyst at VM Group in London, said today by phone. "Until we have satisfactory resolution in Ivory Coast then cocoa is going to be volatile."
Cocoa for March delivery lost 23 pounds, or 1.1 percent, to 2,015 pounds ($3,177) a metric ton at 11 a.m. on NYSE Liffe in London. The commodity has risen 14 percent since it's year-low on Nov. 8, with prices surging 4.5 percent last week, the biggest gain since the week to June 4.
"There are two basic things in play moving the price," Mead said. "One is the likelihood of a large Ivory Coast main crop, facing against complete political uncertainly, which most people assume correctly will result in fresh rounds of civil protest."
Cocoa production may exceed demand by 100,000 tons in the current season as rainfall increases and West African governments invest in the industry, the International Cocoa Organization said Oct. 13. Global output of the beans will be 3.8 million tons, compared with demand of 3.7 million tons, Executive Director Jean-Marc Anga said.
My view - Political uncertainty and a contested election result are short-term bullish for cocoa prices. It remains to be seen just how much of the crop makes it out of the country in this environment. Historically, episodes of political unrest have resulted in significant volatility in cocoa prices. To the best of my knowledge most of the cocoa traded in London is sourced in the Ivory Coast while the US contract is more dependent on supply from the Americas.
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Eoin's personal portfolio: two commodity longs stopped out at a profit - This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.